Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia
Introduction Child and adolescent obesity is associated with a range of immediate health issues and influences obesity in adulthood. The complex nature of health determinants that contribute to obesity makes it challenging to deliver effective public health interventions. This research presents insi...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2025-06-01
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| Series: | BMJ Public Health |
| Online Access: | https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/3/1/e001164.full |
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| author | Alison Hayes Rebecca Wyse Anna Lene Seidler Kylie E Hunter Rebecca K Golley Louise A Baur Anthony D Okely Kenny Lawson Jo-An Occhipinti Louise Freebairn Simon Keith Chiu Joseph Carrello L Kurt Kreuger |
| author_facet | Alison Hayes Rebecca Wyse Anna Lene Seidler Kylie E Hunter Rebecca K Golley Louise A Baur Anthony D Okely Kenny Lawson Jo-An Occhipinti Louise Freebairn Simon Keith Chiu Joseph Carrello L Kurt Kreuger |
| author_sort | Alison Hayes |
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| description | Introduction Child and adolescent obesity is associated with a range of immediate health issues and influences obesity in adulthood. The complex nature of health determinants that contribute to obesity makes it challenging to deliver effective public health interventions. This research presents insights from a system dynamics model of childhood and adolescent obesity aimed at supporting evidence-based decision-making.Methods A system dynamics model was developed using the best available evidence and data, with input from research and industry experts to map the hypothetical causal structure of the factors contributing to childhood and adolescent obesity in Australia. The model was calibrated to fit the historical prevalence of obesity (R2=0.97, mean squared error (MSE)=4.94E-04). Intervention-based scenarios were simulated to examine how changes in environmental factors and health-related behaviours may affect the prevalence of obesity. The potential economic benefits of the scenarios were estimated from changes in population healthcare spending and quality of life compared with base model projections.Results A series of interventions were explored in the model, including changes in early childhood behaviours, changes to diet and physical activity in childcare and school settings, financial support for organised sports and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation. The most promising individually implemented intervention scenario for reducing the prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity was a sugar-sweetened beverage tax (0.57 percentage points and 0.61 percentage points, respectively) and government funding of organised sports (0.42 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points, respectively). When all interventions were implemented in combination, childhood obesity was reduced by 1.43 percentage points and 1.81 percentage points in adolescents.Conclusions The findings highlight the challenges faced by policy-makers and public health practitioners working to reduce childhood and adolescent obesity. Insights from the model emphasise the value of public health programmes over the life course. Implementing initiatives with broad reach that support healthy choices may reduce obesity, resulting in a healthier Australian population. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a5ccc59674e0466e95c060a219dfb628 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2753-4294 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-a5ccc59674e0466e95c060a219dfb6282025-08-20T02:38:35ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Public Health2753-42942025-06-013110.1136/bmjph-2024-001164Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in AustraliaAlison Hayes0Rebecca Wyse1Anna Lene Seidler2Kylie E Hunter3Rebecca K Golley4Louise A Baur5Anthony D Okely6Kenny Lawson7Jo-An Occhipinti8Louise Freebairn9Simon Keith Chiu10Joseph Carrello11L Kurt Kreuger12School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia1 School of Medicine and Public Health, The University of Newcastle - Newcastle Callaghan Campus, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia2 NHMRC Clinical Trial Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia3 University of Sydney, NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, Camperdown, New South Wales, AustraliaFlinders University Caring Futures Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaSchool of Health and Society, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, AustraliaWestern Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, AustraliaBrain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaSax Institute, Haymarket, New South Wales, AustraliaThe University of Newcastle Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, New South Wales, AustraliaMelbourne School of Population and Global Health, Centre for Health Policy, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaKreuger Consulting, Fort Worth, Texas, USAIntroduction Child and adolescent obesity is associated with a range of immediate health issues and influences obesity in adulthood. The complex nature of health determinants that contribute to obesity makes it challenging to deliver effective public health interventions. This research presents insights from a system dynamics model of childhood and adolescent obesity aimed at supporting evidence-based decision-making.Methods A system dynamics model was developed using the best available evidence and data, with input from research and industry experts to map the hypothetical causal structure of the factors contributing to childhood and adolescent obesity in Australia. The model was calibrated to fit the historical prevalence of obesity (R2=0.97, mean squared error (MSE)=4.94E-04). Intervention-based scenarios were simulated to examine how changes in environmental factors and health-related behaviours may affect the prevalence of obesity. The potential economic benefits of the scenarios were estimated from changes in population healthcare spending and quality of life compared with base model projections.Results A series of interventions were explored in the model, including changes in early childhood behaviours, changes to diet and physical activity in childcare and school settings, financial support for organised sports and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation. The most promising individually implemented intervention scenario for reducing the prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity was a sugar-sweetened beverage tax (0.57 percentage points and 0.61 percentage points, respectively) and government funding of organised sports (0.42 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points, respectively). When all interventions were implemented in combination, childhood obesity was reduced by 1.43 percentage points and 1.81 percentage points in adolescents.Conclusions The findings highlight the challenges faced by policy-makers and public health practitioners working to reduce childhood and adolescent obesity. Insights from the model emphasise the value of public health programmes over the life course. Implementing initiatives with broad reach that support healthy choices may reduce obesity, resulting in a healthier Australian population.https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/3/1/e001164.full |
| spellingShingle | Alison Hayes Rebecca Wyse Anna Lene Seidler Kylie E Hunter Rebecca K Golley Louise A Baur Anthony D Okely Kenny Lawson Jo-An Occhipinti Louise Freebairn Simon Keith Chiu Joseph Carrello L Kurt Kreuger Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia BMJ Public Health |
| title | Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia |
| title_full | Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia |
| title_fullStr | Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia |
| title_short | Insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in Australia |
| title_sort | insights from a codesigned dynamic modelling study of child and adolescent obesity in australia |
| url | https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/3/1/e001164.full |
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