Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations
In the context of global warming， the in-depth study of the change in surface wind speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau can provide support for development planning for the double-carbon policy.Based on the multi-source datasets， it is expected to obtain the qualitative conclusion.In addition， to compr...
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Science Press, PR China
2022-08-01
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| author | Jia WU Jie WU Yuping YAN |
| author_facet | Jia WU Jie WU Yuping YAN |
| author_sort | Jia WU |
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| description | In the context of global warming， the in-depth study of the change in surface wind speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau can provide support for development planning for the double-carbon policy.Based on the multi-source datasets， it is expected to obtain the qualitative conclusion.In addition， to comprehensive evaluate the performance of CN05.1 gridded dataset as well as the dynamical downscaling simulations can provide guidance for the application of these two datasets over this region.Firstly， the monthly， seasonal and annual averaged wind speed， inter-annual， intra-annual variability of surface wind speed， the trends of wind speed probability for different grades， as well as the spatial distribution over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were analyzed， based on the five wind speed datasets from 1961 to 2020.Then， the performance in reproducing the monthly， seasonal， annual averaged and long-term variability of surface wind speed from 1986 to 2005 was evaluated， using the five dynamical downscaling simulations and their ensemble mean from regional climate model （RegCM4）.The result indicated that decreasing trends were generally found in the seasonal and annual averaged surface wind speed from 1961 to 2002， with different magnitude among different datasets， while for the period from 2002 to 2020， the significant increasing trend was observed both in CN05.1 and NCEP-1.In addition， the probability of calm wind （0.0~0.2 m·s-1） showed a slightly decrease both in 1961 -2002 and 2002 -2020.The light air （0.3~1.5 m·s-1） and light breeze （1.6~3.3 m·s-1） increased in 1961 -2002 and decreased in 2002 -2020， in the meantime， the gentle breeze （3.4~5.4 m·s-1） and moderate breeze （5.5~7.9 m·s-1） showed a similar change to the mean surface wind speed.Furthermore， the wind speed greater than or equal to 8 m·s-1 mainly decreased in 1961 -2002 and 2002 -2020.Overall， the change in CN05.1 was more closed to station dataset and showed consistent characteristics with JRA-55， which behaved better among reanalysis datasets， indicating the high applicability of CN05.1 over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Although all downscaling simulations could reasonably capture the spatial distribution of surface wind speed in different seasons and also well reproduced the wind speed pattern among different topography， the underestimation existed in the northwestern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau while the overestimation was prevailing in the other region.Furthermore， the significant deviation was found in the simulation of the intra-annual change， and the magnitude of trends was also underestimated.In terms of different simulations， the result driven by HadGEM2-ES showed a better performance in reproducing the spatial distribution of seasonal and annual mean surface wind speed， while the result driven by MPI-ESM-MR showed smaller root mean square error and better trends.Overall， the smallest relative root mean square error was observed in ensemble mean， implying more stable ability than the individual simulation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a55786b378fa4b07975972a6ddc94c5e |
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| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-a55786b378fa4b07975972a6ddc94c5e2025-08-20T02:11:41ZzhoScience Press, PR ChinaGaoyuan qixiang1000-05342022-08-0141496397610.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2022.000651000-0534（2022）04-0963-14Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling SimulationsJia WU0Jie WU1Yuping YAN2National Climate Center， Beijing 100081， ChinaSchool of Geography and Environmental Engineering， Gannan Normal University， Ganzhou 341000， JiangXi， ChinaNational Climate Center， Beijing 100081， ChinaIn the context of global warming， the in-depth study of the change in surface wind speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau can provide support for development planning for the double-carbon policy.Based on the multi-source datasets， it is expected to obtain the qualitative conclusion.In addition， to comprehensive evaluate the performance of CN05.1 gridded dataset as well as the dynamical downscaling simulations can provide guidance for the application of these two datasets over this region.Firstly， the monthly， seasonal and annual averaged wind speed， inter-annual， intra-annual variability of surface wind speed， the trends of wind speed probability for different grades， as well as the spatial distribution over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were analyzed， based on the five wind speed datasets from 1961 to 2020.Then， the performance in reproducing the monthly， seasonal， annual averaged and long-term variability of surface wind speed from 1986 to 2005 was evaluated， using the five dynamical downscaling simulations and their ensemble mean from regional climate model （RegCM4）.The result indicated that decreasing trends were generally found in the seasonal and annual averaged surface wind speed from 1961 to 2002， with different magnitude among different datasets， while for the period from 2002 to 2020， the significant increasing trend was observed both in CN05.1 and NCEP-1.In addition， the probability of calm wind （0.0~0.2 m·s-1） showed a slightly decrease both in 1961 -2002 and 2002 -2020.The light air （0.3~1.5 m·s-1） and light breeze （1.6~3.3 m·s-1） increased in 1961 -2002 and decreased in 2002 -2020， in the meantime， the gentle breeze （3.4~5.4 m·s-1） and moderate breeze （5.5~7.9 m·s-1） showed a similar change to the mean surface wind speed.Furthermore， the wind speed greater than or equal to 8 m·s-1 mainly decreased in 1961 -2002 and 2002 -2020.Overall， the change in CN05.1 was more closed to station dataset and showed consistent characteristics with JRA-55， which behaved better among reanalysis datasets， indicating the high applicability of CN05.1 over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Although all downscaling simulations could reasonably capture the spatial distribution of surface wind speed in different seasons and also well reproduced the wind speed pattern among different topography， the underestimation existed in the northwestern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau while the overestimation was prevailing in the other region.Furthermore， the significant deviation was found in the simulation of the intra-annual change， and the magnitude of trends was also underestimated.In terms of different simulations， the result driven by HadGEM2-ES showed a better performance in reproducing the spatial distribution of seasonal and annual mean surface wind speed， while the result driven by MPI-ESM-MR showed smaller root mean square error and better trends.Overall， the smallest relative root mean square error was observed in ensemble mean， implying more stable ability than the individual simulation.http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2022.00065qinghai-xizang plateausurface wind speed changedynamical downscalingevaluation |
| spellingShingle | Jia WU Jie WU Yuping YAN Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations Gaoyuan qixiang qinghai-xizang plateau surface wind speed change dynamical downscaling evaluation |
| title | Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations |
| title_full | Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations |
| title_fullStr | Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations |
| title_short | Changes of Surface Wind Speed over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 and Evaluation of the Dynamical Downscaling Simulations |
| title_sort | changes of surface wind speed over qinghai xizang plateau from 1961 to 2020 and evaluation of the dynamical downscaling simulations |
| topic | qinghai-xizang plateau surface wind speed change dynamical downscaling evaluation |
| url | http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2022.00065 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiawu changesofsurfacewindspeedoverqinghaixizangplateaufrom1961to2020andevaluationofthedynamicaldownscalingsimulations AT jiewu changesofsurfacewindspeedoverqinghaixizangplateaufrom1961to2020andevaluationofthedynamicaldownscalingsimulations AT yupingyan changesofsurfacewindspeedoverqinghaixizangplateaufrom1961to2020andevaluationofthedynamicaldownscalingsimulations |