Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning

The condition of forests plays a crucial role in environmental balance and the sustainability of ecosystems. In this context, the study of forest health trends emerges as an essential element to comprehend and address the impacts of environmental drivers. This study explores relationships between fo...

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Main Authors: Patricia Arrogante-Funes, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Dina Osuna Feijoo, Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado, Carlos J. Novillo, Adrián G. Bruzón
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-12-01
Series:Ecological Informatics
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003528
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author Patricia Arrogante-Funes
Fátima Arrogante-Funes
Dina Osuna Feijoo
Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado
Carlos J. Novillo
Adrián G. Bruzón
author_facet Patricia Arrogante-Funes
Fátima Arrogante-Funes
Dina Osuna Feijoo
Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado
Carlos J. Novillo
Adrián G. Bruzón
author_sort Patricia Arrogante-Funes
collection DOAJ
description The condition of forests plays a crucial role in environmental balance and the sustainability of ecosystems. In this context, the study of forest health trends emerges as an essential element to comprehend and address the impacts of environmental drivers. This study explores relationships between forest health (assessed via NDVI) and environmental drivers across Alpine, Atlantic, and Mediterranean biogeographical regions in Spain during 2001–2016. Spatiotemporal dynamics, defined here as changes in forest NDVI trends over time and across geographical areas, are analyses using machine learning techniques (Random Forest and SHAP). The results provide identified key environmental and climatic drivers, which are essential insights for sustainable forest management and policy-making under climate change scenarios. The study period, the national scale employed, and the understanding of these trends make this study a knowledge source for forest managers in Spain, enabling them to identify regions and develop strategies and policies that help alleviate, prevent, and protect forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services in this era of global change.
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issn 1574-9541
language English
publishDate 2025-12-01
publisher Elsevier
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series Ecological Informatics
spelling doaj-art-a5559efa39e4473c97534e403fe2037d2025-08-20T05:05:54ZengElsevierEcological Informatics1574-95412025-12-019010334310.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103343Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learningPatricia Arrogante-Funes0Fátima Arrogante-Funes1Dina Osuna Feijoo2Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado3Carlos J. Novillo4Adrián G. Bruzón5Department of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, Spain; Research Group on Technologies for Landscape Analysis and Diagnosis (TADAT), Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, Spain; Corresponding author.Department of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, Spain; Research Group on Technologies for Landscape Analysis and Diagnosis (TADAT), Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Chemical and Environmental Technology, ESCET, Rey Juan Carlos University, C/Tulipán s/n, Móstoles, 28933 Madrid, SpainThe condition of forests plays a crucial role in environmental balance and the sustainability of ecosystems. In this context, the study of forest health trends emerges as an essential element to comprehend and address the impacts of environmental drivers. This study explores relationships between forest health (assessed via NDVI) and environmental drivers across Alpine, Atlantic, and Mediterranean biogeographical regions in Spain during 2001–2016. Spatiotemporal dynamics, defined here as changes in forest NDVI trends over time and across geographical areas, are analyses using machine learning techniques (Random Forest and SHAP). The results provide identified key environmental and climatic drivers, which are essential insights for sustainable forest management and policy-making under climate change scenarios. The study period, the national scale employed, and the understanding of these trends make this study a knowledge source for forest managers in Spain, enabling them to identify regions and develop strategies and policies that help alleviate, prevent, and protect forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services in this era of global change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003528Forest remote sensingMain driversMachine learningNDVI trendsTime series analysesForest health
spellingShingle Patricia Arrogante-Funes
Fátima Arrogante-Funes
Dina Osuna Feijoo
Ariadna Álvarez-Ripado
Carlos J. Novillo
Adrián G. Bruzón
Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
Ecological Informatics
Forest remote sensing
Main drivers
Machine learning
NDVI trends
Time series analyses
Forest health
title Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
title_full Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
title_fullStr Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
title_full_unstemmed Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
title_short Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern Europe with explainable machine learning
title_sort exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of forest ecosystems in southern europe with explainable machine learning
topic Forest remote sensing
Main drivers
Machine learning
NDVI trends
Time series analyses
Forest health
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003528
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