Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment

Climate change poses a significant threat to global agricultural sectors and their supply chains, with far-reaching implications for economic stability and growth, particularly in developing countries heavily reliant on agriculture. In this study, we employ a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework...

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Main Authors: Watchara Pechdin, Pongsun Bunditsakulchai
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Environmental Research Communications
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/add9ec
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author Watchara Pechdin
Pongsun Bunditsakulchai
author_facet Watchara Pechdin
Pongsun Bunditsakulchai
author_sort Watchara Pechdin
collection DOAJ
description Climate change poses a significant threat to global agricultural sectors and their supply chains, with far-reaching implications for economic stability and growth, particularly in developing countries heavily reliant on agriculture. In this study, we employ a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework to analyze the linkages between the agricultural sector and the broader economy and to assess the potential economic losses from climate change to inform stakeholders of its wider impacts. By analyzing three scenarios of agricultural production declines (0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.3%), we can quantify the economic loss thresholds, which include production losses, household losses, and circular effects from injected income across both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Our calculations reveal that even minor reductions in agricultural output lead to substantial economic losses, with a 0.1% decline resulting in an 11.04 billion THB (0.32 billion USD) loss, escalating to 33.11 billion THB (1.01 billion USD) for a 0.3% decline. At the sectoral level, production losses were most concentrated in input-supplying industries such as chemicals, machinery, and energy. From a household perspective, farmers in the rubber and sugarcane sectors were among the most affected. Additionally, sectors like wholesale and retail trade experienced losses due to disruptions in economic circulation. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the resilience of agriculture-related industries and reforming the agricultural sector to align with their consumption and production patterns. Such measures are crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural development in response to climate change.
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spelling doaj-art-a528a985d8c24530b1f99c86b1ea0f122025-08-20T03:21:39ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017505101310.1088/2515-7620/add9ecEconomic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessmentWatchara Pechdin0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6769-783XPongsun Bunditsakulchai1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4890-8432Faculty of Social Administration, Thammasat University , Bangkok, ThailandDepartment of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University , Bangkok, ThailandClimate change poses a significant threat to global agricultural sectors and their supply chains, with far-reaching implications for economic stability and growth, particularly in developing countries heavily reliant on agriculture. In this study, we employ a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework to analyze the linkages between the agricultural sector and the broader economy and to assess the potential economic losses from climate change to inform stakeholders of its wider impacts. By analyzing three scenarios of agricultural production declines (0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.3%), we can quantify the economic loss thresholds, which include production losses, household losses, and circular effects from injected income across both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Our calculations reveal that even minor reductions in agricultural output lead to substantial economic losses, with a 0.1% decline resulting in an 11.04 billion THB (0.32 billion USD) loss, escalating to 33.11 billion THB (1.01 billion USD) for a 0.3% decline. At the sectoral level, production losses were most concentrated in input-supplying industries such as chemicals, machinery, and energy. From a household perspective, farmers in the rubber and sugarcane sectors were among the most affected. Additionally, sectors like wholesale and retail trade experienced losses due to disruptions in economic circulation. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the resilience of agriculture-related industries and reforming the agricultural sector to align with their consumption and production patterns. Such measures are crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural development in response to climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/add9ecsocial accounting matrixeconomic stressagricultureclimate changegeneral equilibrium
spellingShingle Watchara Pechdin
Pongsun Bunditsakulchai
Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
Environmental Research Communications
social accounting matrix
economic stress
agriculture
climate change
general equilibrium
title Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
title_full Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
title_fullStr Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
title_full_unstemmed Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
title_short Economic stress from climate change on agriculture: a SAM-based assessment
title_sort economic stress from climate change on agriculture a sam based assessment
topic social accounting matrix
economic stress
agriculture
climate change
general equilibrium
url https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/add9ec
work_keys_str_mv AT watcharapechdin economicstressfromclimatechangeonagricultureasambasedassessment
AT pongsunbunditsakulchai economicstressfromclimatechangeonagricultureasambasedassessment