Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States

Abstract The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cy...

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Main Authors: Shelby A. Mason, Peter E. Hamlington, Benjamin D. Hamlington, W. Matt Jolly, Chad M. Hoffman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2017-07-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074111
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author Shelby A. Mason
Peter E. Hamlington
Benjamin D. Hamlington
W. Matt Jolly
Chad M. Hoffman
author_facet Shelby A. Mason
Peter E. Hamlington
Benjamin D. Hamlington
W. Matt Jolly
Chad M. Hoffman
author_sort Shelby A. Mason
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Niño but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Niña. In late summer, El Niño is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation.
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spelling doaj-art-a51634bcb39042e4b2340420da5489a02025-08-20T02:31:40ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072017-07-0144137002701010.1002/2017GL074111Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United StatesShelby A. Mason0Peter E. Hamlington1Benjamin D. Hamlington2W. Matt Jolly3Chad M. Hoffman4Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USADepartment of Mechanical Engineering University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USADepartment of Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Old Dominion University Norfolk Virginia USAU.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory Missoula Montana USADepartment of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USAAbstract The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early summer, wildland fire potential is reduced in the southwest during El Niño but is increased in the northwest, with opposite trends for La Niña. In late summer, El Niño is associated with increased wildland fire potential in the southwest. Relative to the mean, the largest impacts of ENSO are observed in the northwest and southeast. Climate impacts on fire potential due to ENSO are found to be most closely associated with variations in relative humidity. The connections established here between fire potential and climate oscillations could result in improved wildland fire risk assessment and resource allocation.https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074111wildland firesclimate oscillationsEl Niño
spellingShingle Shelby A. Mason
Peter E. Hamlington
Benjamin D. Hamlington
W. Matt Jolly
Chad M. Hoffman
Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
Geophysical Research Letters
wildland fires
climate oscillations
El Niño
title Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
title_full Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
title_fullStr Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
title_full_unstemmed Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
title_short Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
title_sort effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental united states
topic wildland fires
climate oscillations
El Niño
url https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074111
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