Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit
This study assesses and analyzes the annual and seasonal changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Wasit Province, Iraq, between 2020 and 2023. Vegetation cover (VC) variation serves as a key indicator of climate change impacts on ecosystems and agricultural productivity. The r...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Basrah
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Maǧallaẗ al-baṣraẗ al-ʻulūm al-zirāʻiyyaẗ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://bjas.bajas.edu.iq/index.php/bjas/article/view/2549 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849317613040041984 |
|---|---|
| author | Mohanad I. Khalbas Jasim H. Kadhum |
| author_facet | Mohanad I. Khalbas Jasim H. Kadhum |
| author_sort | Mohanad I. Khalbas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assesses and analyzes the annual and seasonal changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Wasit Province, Iraq, between 2020 and 2023. Vegetation cover (VC) variation serves as a key indicator of climate change impacts on ecosystems and agricultural productivity. The research employs satellite-derived NDVI and climate data to detect spatiotemporal changes across the region. Geographically, the Tigris River divides Wasit into two zones: the southern and southwestern parts exhibit higher NDVI values due to abundant water from river branches, whereas the northern and northeastern areas show lower values. A slight improvement in VC was observed in December 2020, likely due to increased Tigris River discharges. Findings indicate a gradual NDVI increase over the study period, with the highest value recorded during summer 2023 (2.94%), highlighting the role of irrigation and modern agricultural practices in enhancing VC beyond the influence of climate factors. Seasonal variations were evident, with summer NDVI values generally exceeding those in winter; the highest winter NDVI was in 2021 (2.40%). Three statistical methods were applied: correlation analysis, linear regression, and ANOVA. Results showed a weak negative correlation between NDVI and precipitation (r = -0.60), and a negligible correlation with air temperature (r = 0.06). ANOVA confirmed significant differences in NDVI values across the years (p = 0.0039), indicating real ecological changes rather than random variation. Using the ARIMA model for forecasting, NDVI is expected to continue a slight upward trend, reaching 0.442 in 2024 and 0.463 in 2025. This suggests a positive vegetation response driven more by improved agricultural and water management practices than by climatic changes.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a4bd2a80a3424315847d961eb3c4b31d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1814-5868 2520-0860 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | University of Basrah |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Maǧallaẗ al-baṣraẗ al-ʻulūm al-zirāʻiyyaẗ |
| spelling | doaj-art-a4bd2a80a3424315847d961eb3c4b31d2025-08-20T03:51:09ZengUniversity of BasrahMaǧallaẗ al-baṣraẗ al-ʻulūm al-zirāʻiyyaẗ1814-58682520-08602025-06-01381Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in WasitMohanad I. Khalbas0Jasim H. Kadhum1Department of Atmospheric Science, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, IraqDepartment of Atmospheric Science, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, IraqThis study assesses and analyzes the annual and seasonal changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Wasit Province, Iraq, between 2020 and 2023. Vegetation cover (VC) variation serves as a key indicator of climate change impacts on ecosystems and agricultural productivity. The research employs satellite-derived NDVI and climate data to detect spatiotemporal changes across the region. Geographically, the Tigris River divides Wasit into two zones: the southern and southwestern parts exhibit higher NDVI values due to abundant water from river branches, whereas the northern and northeastern areas show lower values. A slight improvement in VC was observed in December 2020, likely due to increased Tigris River discharges. Findings indicate a gradual NDVI increase over the study period, with the highest value recorded during summer 2023 (2.94%), highlighting the role of irrigation and modern agricultural practices in enhancing VC beyond the influence of climate factors. Seasonal variations were evident, with summer NDVI values generally exceeding those in winter; the highest winter NDVI was in 2021 (2.40%). Three statistical methods were applied: correlation analysis, linear regression, and ANOVA. Results showed a weak negative correlation between NDVI and precipitation (r = -0.60), and a negligible correlation with air temperature (r = 0.06). ANOVA confirmed significant differences in NDVI values across the years (p = 0.0039), indicating real ecological changes rather than random variation. Using the ARIMA model for forecasting, NDVI is expected to continue a slight upward trend, reaching 0.442 in 2024 and 0.463 in 2025. This suggests a positive vegetation response driven more by improved agricultural and water management practices than by climatic changes. https://bjas.bajas.edu.iq/index.php/bjas/article/view/2549ARIMA modelclimate changeGISNDVIsatellite imagery |
| spellingShingle | Mohanad I. Khalbas Jasim H. Kadhum Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit Maǧallaẗ al-baṣraẗ al-ʻulūm al-zirāʻiyyaẗ ARIMA model climate change GIS NDVI satellite imagery |
| title | Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit |
| title_full | Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit |
| title_short | Assessing Seasonal Variations of Vegetation Cover Using NDVI in Context Climate Change in Wasit |
| title_sort | assessing seasonal variations of vegetation cover using ndvi in context climate change in wasit |
| topic | ARIMA model climate change GIS NDVI satellite imagery |
| url | https://bjas.bajas.edu.iq/index.php/bjas/article/view/2549 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mohanadikhalbas assessingseasonalvariationsofvegetationcoverusingndviincontextclimatechangeinwasit AT jasimhkadhum assessingseasonalvariationsofvegetationcoverusingndviincontextclimatechangeinwasit |