Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution ar...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-08-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Digital Earth |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058 |
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| author | Mengmeng Cao Kebiao Mao Sayed M. Bateni Jing M. Chen Essam Heggy Jong-Seong Kug Xinyi Shen |
| author_facet | Mengmeng Cao Kebiao Mao Sayed M. Bateni Jing M. Chen Essam Heggy Jong-Seong Kug Xinyi Shen |
| author_sort | Mengmeng Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂ |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a4abb80b1b124b88b87abf82b69ba3a3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1753-8947 1753-8955 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| spelling | doaj-art-a4abb80b1b124b88b87abf82b69ba3a32025-08-25T11:31:50ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552025-08-0118110.1080/17538947.2025.2487058Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changesMengmeng Cao0Kebiao Mao1Sayed M. Bateni2Jing M. Chen3Essam Heggy4Jong-Seong Kug5Xinyi Shen6State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USASchool of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaViterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USADivision of Environmental Science & Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, KoreaSchool of Freshwater sciences, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USAThe influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058Planetary motionEarth’s temperatureGreenhouse gases |
| spellingShingle | Mengmeng Cao Kebiao Mao Sayed M. Bateni Jing M. Chen Essam Heggy Jong-Seong Kug Xinyi Shen Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes International Journal of Digital Earth Planetary motion Earth’s temperature Greenhouse gases |
| title | Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes |
| title_full | Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes |
| title_short | Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes |
| title_sort | evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth s temperature changes |
| topic | Planetary motion Earth’s temperature Greenhouse gases |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058 |
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