Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes

The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution ar...

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Main Authors: Mengmeng Cao, Kebiao Mao, Sayed M. Bateni, Jing M. Chen, Essam Heggy, Jong-Seong Kug, Xinyi Shen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-08-01
Series:International Journal of Digital Earth
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058
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author Mengmeng Cao
Kebiao Mao
Sayed M. Bateni
Jing M. Chen
Essam Heggy
Jong-Seong Kug
Xinyi Shen
author_facet Mengmeng Cao
Kebiao Mao
Sayed M. Bateni
Jing M. Chen
Essam Heggy
Jong-Seong Kug
Xinyi Shen
author_sort Mengmeng Cao
collection DOAJ
description The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂
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institution Kabale University
issn 1753-8947
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language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Taylor & Francis Group
record_format Article
series International Journal of Digital Earth
spelling doaj-art-a4abb80b1b124b88b87abf82b69ba3a32025-08-25T11:31:50ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552025-08-0118110.1080/17538947.2025.2487058Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changesMengmeng Cao0Kebiao Mao1Sayed M. Bateni2Jing M. Chen3Essam Heggy4Jong-Seong Kug5Xinyi Shen6State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USASchool of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaViterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USADivision of Environmental Science & Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, KoreaSchool of Freshwater sciences, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USAThe influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058Planetary motionEarth’s temperatureGreenhouse gases
spellingShingle Mengmeng Cao
Kebiao Mao
Sayed M. Bateni
Jing M. Chen
Essam Heggy
Jong-Seong Kug
Xinyi Shen
Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
International Journal of Digital Earth
Planetary motion
Earth’s temperature
Greenhouse gases
title Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
title_full Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
title_fullStr Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
title_short Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes
title_sort evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth s temperature changes
topic Planetary motion
Earth’s temperature
Greenhouse gases
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2025.2487058
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AT kebiaomao evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges
AT sayedmbateni evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges
AT jingmchen evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges
AT essamheggy evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges
AT jongseongkug evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges
AT xinyishen evaluationandpredictionoftheeffectsofplanetaryorbitalvariationstoearthstemperaturechanges