The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade
This study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that third-country volatility, using the lira-dollar, ha...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Economists' Association of Vojvodina
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Panoeconomicus |
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| Online Access: | https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2025/1452-595X2300015K.pdf |
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| author | Khalid Waqar Civcir Irfan Özdeşer Hüseyin |
| author_facet | Khalid Waqar Civcir Irfan Özdeşer Hüseyin |
| author_sort | Khalid Waqar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that third-country volatility, using the lira-dollar, had a significant short-term symmetric effect on 59 (67) Turkish export (import) industries. The NARDL model found that third-country volatility had a short-run asymmetric effect on trade volumes in more than half of the Turkish export and import industries. However, the short-run asymmetric effects turned into longrun asymmetric effects in about 50 percent of the industries. The results establish that nonlinear models lead to more significant short-run and long-run effects. The empirical evidence shows that the asymmetric assumption alone is insufficient, and third-country volatility should also be considered. The results suggest that all traders should consider how policy changes in a third-country may affect cross-country trade when designing their trade policies in a diversified trade environment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a49ee55201aa4ed590bf04f505705483 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1452-595X 2217-2386 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Economists' Association of Vojvodina |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Panoeconomicus |
| spelling | doaj-art-a49ee55201aa4ed590bf04f5057054832025-08-20T03:31:31ZengEconomists' Association of VojvodinaPanoeconomicus1452-595X2217-23862025-01-0172340944510.2298/PAN220624015K1452-595X2300015KThe asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity tradeKhalid Waqar0Civcir Irfan1Özdeşer Hüseyin2Near East University, Department of Economics, Nicosia, North CyprusAnkara University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of Economics, Ankara, TurkeyNear East University, Department of Economics, Nicosia, North CyprusThis study examines the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade. We analyzed annual time-series data spanning 1980-2022 for 79 (93) Turkish export (import) industries. The ARDL model found that third-country volatility, using the lira-dollar, had a significant short-term symmetric effect on 59 (67) Turkish export (import) industries. The NARDL model found that third-country volatility had a short-run asymmetric effect on trade volumes in more than half of the Turkish export and import industries. However, the short-run asymmetric effects turned into longrun asymmetric effects in about 50 percent of the industries. The results establish that nonlinear models lead to more significant short-run and long-run effects. The empirical evidence shows that the asymmetric assumption alone is insufficient, and third-country volatility should also be considered. The results suggest that all traders should consider how policy changes in a third-country may affect cross-country trade when designing their trade policies in a diversified trade environment.https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2025/1452-595X2300015K.pdfexchange rate volatilityasymmetric effectsthird-country volatilitynardlcommodity trade |
| spellingShingle | Khalid Waqar Civcir Irfan Özdeşer Hüseyin The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade Panoeconomicus exchange rate volatility asymmetric effects third-country volatility nardl commodity trade |
| title | The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade |
| title_full | The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade |
| title_fullStr | The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade |
| title_full_unstemmed | The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade |
| title_short | The asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate volatility on Turkish-German commodity trade |
| title_sort | asymmetric effects of third country exchange rate volatility on turkish german commodity trade |
| topic | exchange rate volatility asymmetric effects third-country volatility nardl commodity trade |
| url | https://doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2025/1452-595X2300015K.pdf |
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