Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios
In this study, we predicted the global climatic suitability of <i>Tuta absoluta</i>, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We used species’ natural occurrence records in 1981–2024 and environmental variables in 1981–2010, reflecting near-current climate conditions, for modeling. The o...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Insects |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/2/185 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850081330829721600 |
|---|---|
| author | Tai Gao Rui Feng Zibo Liu Zengrong Zhu |
| author_facet | Tai Gao Rui Feng Zibo Liu Zengrong Zhu |
| author_sort | Tai Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we predicted the global climatic suitability of <i>Tuta absoluta</i>, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We used species’ natural occurrence records in 1981–2024 and environmental variables in 1981–2010, reflecting near-current climate conditions, for modeling. The occurrence records used for modeling excluded the data from greenhouses and summer-only presence. The optimized MaxEnt models demonstrated an excellent predictive performance; Jaccard’s and Sørensen’s indices were greater than 0.8. Temperature, particularly the mean daily air temperature in February (tas2), was identified as the primary influencing factor. Projections based on five global climate models (GCMs) and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicated an increasing risk of <i>T. absoluta</i> expansion. Under SSP126, the lowest-risk period (2011–2040) exhibited a 7.08% increase in suitable areas, while SSP370 during the highest-risk period (2071–2100) projected an 18.13% increase relative to near-current conditions. Model outputs underestimated the pest’s actual distribution, underscoring its invasive potential. We recommend stringent quarantine measures, particularly for artificial facilities that support overwintering, to mitigate future invasions. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders to safeguard global tomato production against this invasive threat. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a43508445eca4bcbadc8b6b7e54b0900 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2075-4450 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Insects |
| spelling | doaj-art-a43508445eca4bcbadc8b6b7e54b09002025-08-20T02:44:46ZengMDPI AGInsects2075-44502025-02-0116218510.3390/insects16020185Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate ScenariosTai Gao0Rui Feng1Zibo Liu2Zengrong Zhu3College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaCollege of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaAcademy of Forestry Inventory and Planning, National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China, Beijing 100714, ChinaCollege of Agriculture and Biotechnology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, ChinaIn this study, we predicted the global climatic suitability of <i>Tuta absoluta</i>, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We used species’ natural occurrence records in 1981–2024 and environmental variables in 1981–2010, reflecting near-current climate conditions, for modeling. The occurrence records used for modeling excluded the data from greenhouses and summer-only presence. The optimized MaxEnt models demonstrated an excellent predictive performance; Jaccard’s and Sørensen’s indices were greater than 0.8. Temperature, particularly the mean daily air temperature in February (tas2), was identified as the primary influencing factor. Projections based on five global climate models (GCMs) and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicated an increasing risk of <i>T. absoluta</i> expansion. Under SSP126, the lowest-risk period (2011–2040) exhibited a 7.08% increase in suitable areas, while SSP370 during the highest-risk period (2071–2100) projected an 18.13% increase relative to near-current conditions. Model outputs underestimated the pest’s actual distribution, underscoring its invasive potential. We recommend stringent quarantine measures, particularly for artificial facilities that support overwintering, to mitigate future invasions. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders to safeguard global tomato production against this invasive threat.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/2/185tomato leaf minerinvasive pestsclimate changepest management |
| spellingShingle | Tai Gao Rui Feng Zibo Liu Zengrong Zhu Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios Insects tomato leaf miner invasive pests climate change pest management |
| title | Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios |
| title_full | Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios |
| title_short | Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of <i>Tuta absoluta</i> (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios |
| title_sort | modeling the potential climatic suitability and expansion risk of i tuta absoluta i meyrick 1917 lepidoptera gelechiidae under future climate scenarios |
| topic | tomato leaf miner invasive pests climate change pest management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/2/185 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT taigao modelingthepotentialclimaticsuitabilityandexpansionriskofitutaabsolutaimeyrick1917lepidopteragelechiidaeunderfutureclimatescenarios AT ruifeng modelingthepotentialclimaticsuitabilityandexpansionriskofitutaabsolutaimeyrick1917lepidopteragelechiidaeunderfutureclimatescenarios AT ziboliu modelingthepotentialclimaticsuitabilityandexpansionriskofitutaabsolutaimeyrick1917lepidopteragelechiidaeunderfutureclimatescenarios AT zengrongzhu modelingthepotentialclimaticsuitabilityandexpansionriskofitutaabsolutaimeyrick1917lepidopteragelechiidaeunderfutureclimatescenarios |