Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming
Abstract A mismatch of species’ thermal preferences to their environment may indicate how they will respond to future climate change. Averaging this mismatch across species may forewarn that some assemblages will undergo greater reorganization, extirpation, and possibly extinction, than others. Here...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56589-0 |
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| author | Carl J. Reddin Jan P. Landwehrs Gregor H. Mathes Clemens V. Ullmann Georg Feulner Martin Aberhan |
| author_facet | Carl J. Reddin Jan P. Landwehrs Gregor H. Mathes Clemens V. Ullmann Georg Feulner Martin Aberhan |
| author_sort | Carl J. Reddin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A mismatch of species’ thermal preferences to their environment may indicate how they will respond to future climate change. Averaging this mismatch across species may forewarn that some assemblages will undergo greater reorganization, extirpation, and possibly extinction, than others. Here, we examine how regional warming determines species occupancy and assemblage composition of marine bivalves, brachiopods, and gastropods over one-million-year time steps during the Early Jurassic. Thermal bias, the difference between modelled regional temperatures and species’ long-term thermal optima, predicts a gradient of species occupancy response to warming. Species that become extirpated or extinct tend to have cooler temperature preferences than immigrating species, while regionally persisting species fell midway. Larger regional changes in summer seawater temperatures (up to +10 °C) strengthen the relationship between species thermal bias and the response gradient, which is also stronger for brachiopods than for bivalves, while the relationship collapses during severe seawater deoxygenation. At +3 °C regional seawater warming, around 5 % of pre-existing benthic species in a regional assemblage are extirpated, and immigrating species comprise around one-fourth of the new assemblage. Our results validate thermal bias as an indicator of immigration, persistence, extirpation, and extinction of marine benthic species and assemblages under modern-like magnitudes of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a43212236c38432ead774c99d51166cf |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-a43212236c38432ead774c99d51166cf2025-02-09T12:44:12ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-02-0116111410.1038/s41467-025-56589-0Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warmingCarl J. Reddin0Jan P. Landwehrs1Gregor H. Mathes2Clemens V. Ullmann3Georg Feulner4Martin Aberhan5Museum für Naturkunde Berlin – Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity ScienceAlfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchGeoZentrum Nordbayern, Universität Erlangen-NürnbergUniversity of ExeterPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationMuseum für Naturkunde Berlin – Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity ScienceAbstract A mismatch of species’ thermal preferences to their environment may indicate how they will respond to future climate change. Averaging this mismatch across species may forewarn that some assemblages will undergo greater reorganization, extirpation, and possibly extinction, than others. Here, we examine how regional warming determines species occupancy and assemblage composition of marine bivalves, brachiopods, and gastropods over one-million-year time steps during the Early Jurassic. Thermal bias, the difference between modelled regional temperatures and species’ long-term thermal optima, predicts a gradient of species occupancy response to warming. Species that become extirpated or extinct tend to have cooler temperature preferences than immigrating species, while regionally persisting species fell midway. Larger regional changes in summer seawater temperatures (up to +10 °C) strengthen the relationship between species thermal bias and the response gradient, which is also stronger for brachiopods than for bivalves, while the relationship collapses during severe seawater deoxygenation. At +3 °C regional seawater warming, around 5 % of pre-existing benthic species in a regional assemblage are extirpated, and immigrating species comprise around one-fourth of the new assemblage. Our results validate thermal bias as an indicator of immigration, persistence, extirpation, and extinction of marine benthic species and assemblages under modern-like magnitudes of climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56589-0 |
| spellingShingle | Carl J. Reddin Jan P. Landwehrs Gregor H. Mathes Clemens V. Ullmann Georg Feulner Martin Aberhan Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming Nature Communications |
| title | Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming |
| title_full | Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming |
| title_fullStr | Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming |
| title_short | Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming |
| title_sort | marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over early jurassic warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56589-0 |
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