A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data

Existing models of human growth provide limited insight into underlying mechanisms responsible for inter-individual and inter-population variation in children’s growth trajectories. Building on general theories linking growth to metabolic rates, we develop a causal parametric model of height and wei...

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Main Authors: John A. Bunce, Catalina I. Fernández, Caissa Revilla-Minaya
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: The Royal Society 2025-08-01
Series:Royal Society Open Science
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Online Access:https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250084
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author John A. Bunce
Catalina I. Fernández
Caissa Revilla-Minaya
author_facet John A. Bunce
Catalina I. Fernández
Caissa Revilla-Minaya
author_sort John A. Bunce
collection DOAJ
description Existing models of human growth provide limited insight into underlying mechanisms responsible for inter-individual and inter-population variation in children’s growth trajectories. Building on general theories linking growth to metabolic rates, we develop a causal parametric model of height and weight growth incorporating a representation of human body allometry and a process-partitioned representation of ontogeny. This model permits separation of metabolic causes of growth variation, potentially influenced by nutrition and disease, from allometric factors, potentially under stronger genetic control. We estimate model parameters using a Bayesian multilevel statistical design applied to temporally dense height and weight measurements of U.S. children, and temporally sparse measurements of Indigenous Amazonian children. This facilitates a comparison of the contributions of metabolism and allometry to observed cross-cultural variation in the growth trajectories of the two populations, and permits simulation of the effects of healthcare interventions on growth. This theoretical model provides a new framework for exploring the causes of growth variation in our species, while potentially guiding the development of appropriate, and desired, healthcare interventions in societies confronting growth-related health challenges, such as malnutrition and stunting.
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spelling doaj-art-a42d9243942742b4b98d121069a6bb212025-08-20T02:57:47ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032025-08-0112810.1098/rsos.250084A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse dataJohn A. Bunce0Catalina I. Fernández1Caissa Revilla-Minaya2Division of Anthropology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USADepartment of Human Behavior, Ecology, and Culture, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig, Sachsen, GermanyDivision of Anthropology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USAExisting models of human growth provide limited insight into underlying mechanisms responsible for inter-individual and inter-population variation in children’s growth trajectories. Building on general theories linking growth to metabolic rates, we develop a causal parametric model of height and weight growth incorporating a representation of human body allometry and a process-partitioned representation of ontogeny. This model permits separation of metabolic causes of growth variation, potentially influenced by nutrition and disease, from allometric factors, potentially under stronger genetic control. We estimate model parameters using a Bayesian multilevel statistical design applied to temporally dense height and weight measurements of U.S. children, and temporally sparse measurements of Indigenous Amazonian children. This facilitates a comparison of the contributions of metabolism and allometry to observed cross-cultural variation in the growth trajectories of the two populations, and permits simulation of the effects of healthcare interventions on growth. This theoretical model provides a new framework for exploring the causes of growth variation in our species, while potentially guiding the development of appropriate, and desired, healthcare interventions in societies confronting growth-related health challenges, such as malnutrition and stunting.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250084GrowthOntogenyMetabolismAllometryAmazoniaIndigenous Peoples
spellingShingle John A. Bunce
Catalina I. Fernández
Caissa Revilla-Minaya
A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
Royal Society Open Science
Growth
Ontogeny
Metabolism
Allometry
Amazonia
Indigenous Peoples
title A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
title_full A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
title_fullStr A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
title_full_unstemmed A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
title_short A causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
title_sort causal model of human growth and its estimation using temporally sparse data
topic Growth
Ontogeny
Metabolism
Allometry
Amazonia
Indigenous Peoples
url https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250084
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