ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐...

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Main Authors: Minxiang Zhu, Dan Yu, Yiqi Yu, Yi Zheng, Shaobin Li, Ximing Cai, Nengwang Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-01-01
Series:Water Resources Research
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965
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author Minxiang Zhu
Dan Yu
Yiqi Yu
Yi Zheng
Shaobin Li
Ximing Cai
Nengwang Chen
author_facet Minxiang Zhu
Dan Yu
Yiqi Yu
Yi Zheng
Shaobin Li
Ximing Cai
Nengwang Chen
author_sort Minxiang Zhu
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐water interactions. Our study reveals that ENSO exacerbates river discharge variability, evident in the dynamics of maximum rise (Dr) and fall (Df) in standardized discharge, and their duration (M). Notably, ENSO augments Dr but shortens M in major rivers like the Yangtze. Employing a novel metric, the Discharge Instability Index (DII), we find that DII surges by at least 69% in El Niño years, particularly in southwestern North American watersheds. Vegetation and precipitation emerge as pivotal in shaping the discharge response to ENSO. Predictive modeling with DII suggests an escalation in discharge instability under climate warming, with a 0.11%–9.46% increase. This insight calls for water managers to integrate ENSO‐induced seasonal variations into strategic planning, blending immediate actions like dam regulation with long‐term initiatives such as afforestation, to counteract climate‐induced water scarcity.
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spelling doaj-art-a3fbc4092e6c47fd8c25976e7e38b6c42025-08-20T03:22:12ZengWileyWater Resources Research0043-13971944-79732025-01-01611n/an/a10.1029/2023WR036965ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation PressureMinxiang Zhu0Dan Yu1Yiqi Yu2Yi Zheng3Shaobin Li4Ximing Cai5Nengwang Chen6State Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaFujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies College of the Environment and Ecology Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USAState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaAbstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐water interactions. Our study reveals that ENSO exacerbates river discharge variability, evident in the dynamics of maximum rise (Dr) and fall (Df) in standardized discharge, and their duration (M). Notably, ENSO augments Dr but shortens M in major rivers like the Yangtze. Employing a novel metric, the Discharge Instability Index (DII), we find that DII surges by at least 69% in El Niño years, particularly in southwestern North American watersheds. Vegetation and precipitation emerge as pivotal in shaping the discharge response to ENSO. Predictive modeling with DII suggests an escalation in discharge instability under climate warming, with a 0.11%–9.46% increase. This insight calls for water managers to integrate ENSO‐induced seasonal variations into strategic planning, blending immediate actions like dam regulation with long‐term initiatives such as afforestation, to counteract climate‐induced water scarcity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965
spellingShingle Minxiang Zhu
Dan Yu
Yiqi Yu
Yi Zheng
Shaobin Li
Ximing Cai
Nengwang Chen
ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
Water Resources Research
title ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
title_full ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
title_fullStr ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
title_full_unstemmed ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
title_short ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
title_sort enso enhances seasonal river discharge instability and water resource allocation pressure
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965
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AT yizheng ensoenhancesseasonalriverdischargeinstabilityandwaterresourceallocationpressure
AT shaobinli ensoenhancesseasonalriverdischargeinstabilityandwaterresourceallocationpressure
AT ximingcai ensoenhancesseasonalriverdischargeinstabilityandwaterresourceallocationpressure
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