ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure
Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Water Resources Research |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965 |
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| author | Minxiang Zhu Dan Yu Yiqi Yu Yi Zheng Shaobin Li Ximing Cai Nengwang Chen |
| author_facet | Minxiang Zhu Dan Yu Yiqi Yu Yi Zheng Shaobin Li Ximing Cai Nengwang Chen |
| author_sort | Minxiang Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐water interactions. Our study reveals that ENSO exacerbates river discharge variability, evident in the dynamics of maximum rise (Dr) and fall (Df) in standardized discharge, and their duration (M). Notably, ENSO augments Dr but shortens M in major rivers like the Yangtze. Employing a novel metric, the Discharge Instability Index (DII), we find that DII surges by at least 69% in El Niño years, particularly in southwestern North American watersheds. Vegetation and precipitation emerge as pivotal in shaping the discharge response to ENSO. Predictive modeling with DII suggests an escalation in discharge instability under climate warming, with a 0.11%–9.46% increase. This insight calls for water managers to integrate ENSO‐induced seasonal variations into strategic planning, blending immediate actions like dam regulation with long‐term initiatives such as afforestation, to counteract climate‐induced water scarcity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a3fbc4092e6c47fd8c25976e7e38b6c4 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Resources Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-a3fbc4092e6c47fd8c25976e7e38b6c42025-08-20T03:22:12ZengWileyWater Resources Research0043-13971944-79732025-01-01611n/an/a10.1029/2023WR036965ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation PressureMinxiang Zhu0Dan Yu1Yiqi Yu2Yi Zheng3Shaobin Li4Ximing Cai5Nengwang Chen6State Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaFujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies College of the Environment and Ecology Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USAState Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science Xiamen University Xiamen ChinaAbstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly disrupts Pacific Ocean watershed hydrology, affecting water supply reliability. However, the specific ways in which ENSO affects seasonal river discharge remain underexplored, presenting a significant gap in our understanding of climate‐water interactions. Our study reveals that ENSO exacerbates river discharge variability, evident in the dynamics of maximum rise (Dr) and fall (Df) in standardized discharge, and their duration (M). Notably, ENSO augments Dr but shortens M in major rivers like the Yangtze. Employing a novel metric, the Discharge Instability Index (DII), we find that DII surges by at least 69% in El Niño years, particularly in southwestern North American watersheds. Vegetation and precipitation emerge as pivotal in shaping the discharge response to ENSO. Predictive modeling with DII suggests an escalation in discharge instability under climate warming, with a 0.11%–9.46% increase. This insight calls for water managers to integrate ENSO‐induced seasonal variations into strategic planning, blending immediate actions like dam regulation with long‐term initiatives such as afforestation, to counteract climate‐induced water scarcity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965 |
| spellingShingle | Minxiang Zhu Dan Yu Yiqi Yu Yi Zheng Shaobin Li Ximing Cai Nengwang Chen ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure Water Resources Research |
| title | ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure |
| title_full | ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure |
| title_fullStr | ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure |
| title_full_unstemmed | ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure |
| title_short | ENSO Enhances Seasonal River Discharge Instability and Water Resource Allocation Pressure |
| title_sort | enso enhances seasonal river discharge instability and water resource allocation pressure |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036965 |
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