Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission
Guinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/5084687 |
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| author | Anthony A. E. Losio Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_facet | Anthony A. E. Losio Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_sort | Anthony A. E. Losio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Guinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a significant impact on transmission and control of Guinea worm disease. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of Guinea worm disease in South Sudan. The model incorporates seasonal variations, educational campaigns, and spatial heterogeneity. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model have been carried out. Utilizing Guinea worm disease surveillance data of South Sudan (2007-2013) we estimate the model parameters. Meanwhile, we perform an optimal control study to evaluate the implications of vector control on long-term Guinea worm infection dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vector control could play a significant role on Guinea worm disease eradication. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a3e29ef3fe5e4d98af90ec329d81caca |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1110-757X 1687-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-a3e29ef3fe5e4d98af90ec329d81caca2025-08-20T02:20:22ZengWileyJournal of Applied Mathematics1110-757X1687-00422018-01-01201810.1155/2018/50846875084687Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease TransmissionAnthony A. E. Losio0Steady Mushayabasa1University of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, ZimbabweUniversity of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, ZimbabweGuinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a significant impact on transmission and control of Guinea worm disease. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of Guinea worm disease in South Sudan. The model incorporates seasonal variations, educational campaigns, and spatial heterogeneity. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model have been carried out. Utilizing Guinea worm disease surveillance data of South Sudan (2007-2013) we estimate the model parameters. Meanwhile, we perform an optimal control study to evaluate the implications of vector control on long-term Guinea worm infection dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vector control could play a significant role on Guinea worm disease eradication.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/5084687 |
| spellingShingle | Anthony A. E. Losio Steady Mushayabasa Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| title | Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission |
| title_full | Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission |
| title_short | Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission |
| title_sort | modeling the effects of spatial heterogeneity and seasonality on guinea worm disease transmission |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/5084687 |
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