Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution
Abstract Storage of anthropogenic heat in the oceans is spatially inhomogeneous, impacting regional climates and human societies. Climate models project enhanced heat storage in the mid-latitude North Pacific (MNP) and much weaker storage in the tropical Pacific. However, the observed heat storage d...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56005-7 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832594563626172416 |
|---|---|
| author | Jing Duan Yuanlong Li Yilong Lyu Zhao Jing Fan Wang |
| author_facet | Jing Duan Yuanlong Li Yilong Lyu Zhao Jing Fan Wang |
| author_sort | Jing Duan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Storage of anthropogenic heat in the oceans is spatially inhomogeneous, impacting regional climates and human societies. Climate models project enhanced heat storage in the mid-latitude North Pacific (MNP) and much weaker storage in the tropical Pacific. However, the observed heat storage during the past half-century shows a more complex pattern, with limited warming in the MNP and enhanced warming in the northwest tropical Pacific. Here, based on observational datasets, ocean model experiments, and climate models, we show that the emergence of human-induced heat storage is likely postponed in the North Pacific by natural variability until the late-21st century. Specifically, phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have vitally contributed to trends in the North Pacific winds during recent decades. Changes in surface winds drove meridional heat redistribution via Rossby wave dynamics, leading to regional warming and cooling structures and a more complex historical heat storage than models predict. Despite this, enhanced anthropogenic warming has already been emerging in marginal seas along the North Pacific basin rim, for which we shall prepare for the pressing consequences such as increasing marine heatwaves. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a31b36ebb3cc4d2981d83f934fcfe9e4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-a31b36ebb3cc4d2981d83f934fcfe9e42025-01-19T12:32:09ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-56005-7Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistributionJing Duan0Yuanlong Li1Yilong Lyu2Zhao Jing3Fan Wang4Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of SciencesLaoshan LaboratoryKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Storage of anthropogenic heat in the oceans is spatially inhomogeneous, impacting regional climates and human societies. Climate models project enhanced heat storage in the mid-latitude North Pacific (MNP) and much weaker storage in the tropical Pacific. However, the observed heat storage during the past half-century shows a more complex pattern, with limited warming in the MNP and enhanced warming in the northwest tropical Pacific. Here, based on observational datasets, ocean model experiments, and climate models, we show that the emergence of human-induced heat storage is likely postponed in the North Pacific by natural variability until the late-21st century. Specifically, phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have vitally contributed to trends in the North Pacific winds during recent decades. Changes in surface winds drove meridional heat redistribution via Rossby wave dynamics, leading to regional warming and cooling structures and a more complex historical heat storage than models predict. Despite this, enhanced anthropogenic warming has already been emerging in marginal seas along the North Pacific basin rim, for which we shall prepare for the pressing consequences such as increasing marine heatwaves.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56005-7 |
| spellingShingle | Jing Duan Yuanlong Li Yilong Lyu Zhao Jing Fan Wang Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution Nature Communications |
| title | Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution |
| title_full | Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution |
| title_fullStr | Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution |
| title_short | Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution |
| title_sort | emergence of the north pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind driven redistribution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56005-7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jingduan emergenceofthenorthpacificheatstoragepatterndelayedbydecadalwinddrivenredistribution AT yuanlongli emergenceofthenorthpacificheatstoragepatterndelayedbydecadalwinddrivenredistribution AT yilonglyu emergenceofthenorthpacificheatstoragepatterndelayedbydecadalwinddrivenredistribution AT zhaojing emergenceofthenorthpacificheatstoragepatterndelayedbydecadalwinddrivenredistribution AT fanwang emergenceofthenorthpacificheatstoragepatterndelayedbydecadalwinddrivenredistribution |