Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes
Abstract Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long‐term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1213 lakes over 74 yr (1949–2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ic...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70015 |
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| author | Jake R. Walsh Christopher I. Rounds Kelsey Vitense Holly K. Masui Kenneth A. Blumenfeld Peter J. Boulay Shyam M. Thomas Andrew E. Honsey Naomi S. Blinick Claire L. Rude Jonah A. Bacon Ashley A. LaRoque Tarciso C. C. Leão Gretchen J. A. Hansen |
| author_facet | Jake R. Walsh Christopher I. Rounds Kelsey Vitense Holly K. Masui Kenneth A. Blumenfeld Peter J. Boulay Shyam M. Thomas Andrew E. Honsey Naomi S. Blinick Claire L. Rude Jonah A. Bacon Ashley A. LaRoque Tarciso C. C. Leão Gretchen J. A. Hansen |
| author_sort | Jake R. Walsh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long‐term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1213 lakes over 74 yr (1949–2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ice cover duration declined at a rate of 2 d per decade (14 d total) and became more variable. Despite variation in phenology, just 10–20% of lakes differed from statewide phenological trends. Accounting for synchronous annual variation and estimating trends over long time periods (e.g., > 40 yr) were critical for obtaining robust estimates of ice loss. The constant rates estimated here were consistent with recent global estimates (1.7–1.9 d per decade) and suggest that, even if present, accelerating rates of ice loss could be difficult to detect in the midst of shorter‐term periods of warming and increasing variability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a2ba648a931646c5bd98b30e1235e352 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2378-2242 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-a2ba648a931646c5bd98b30e1235e3522025-08-20T03:26:00ZengWileyLimnology and Oceanography Letters2378-22422025-08-0110450651510.1002/lol2.70015Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakesJake R. Walsh0Christopher I. Rounds1Kelsey Vitense2Holly K. Masui3Kenneth A. Blumenfeld4Peter J. Boulay5Shyam M. Thomas6Andrew E. Honsey7Naomi S. Blinick8Claire L. Rude9Jonah A. Bacon10Ashley A. LaRoque11Tarciso C. C. Leão12Gretchen J. A. Hansen13Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USAMinnesota Department of Natural Resources St. Paul Minnesota USAMinnesota Department of Natural Resources St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Forest Resources University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USADepartment of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USAAbstract Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long‐term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1213 lakes over 74 yr (1949–2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ice cover duration declined at a rate of 2 d per decade (14 d total) and became more variable. Despite variation in phenology, just 10–20% of lakes differed from statewide phenological trends. Accounting for synchronous annual variation and estimating trends over long time periods (e.g., > 40 yr) were critical for obtaining robust estimates of ice loss. The constant rates estimated here were consistent with recent global estimates (1.7–1.9 d per decade) and suggest that, even if present, accelerating rates of ice loss could be difficult to detect in the midst of shorter‐term periods of warming and increasing variability.https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70015 |
| spellingShingle | Jake R. Walsh Christopher I. Rounds Kelsey Vitense Holly K. Masui Kenneth A. Blumenfeld Peter J. Boulay Shyam M. Thomas Andrew E. Honsey Naomi S. Blinick Claire L. Rude Jonah A. Bacon Ashley A. LaRoque Tarciso C. C. Leão Gretchen J. A. Hansen Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
| title | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| title_full | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| title_fullStr | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| title_short | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| title_sort | variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover on 1213 minnesota lakes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70015 |
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