The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of income and consumption tax revenues in Zimbabwe, a country grappling with chronic fiscal instability, elevated debt and a large shadow economy. Leveraging annual data from 1980 to 2022, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distr...

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Main Authors: Moses G. Chamisa, Tafirenyika Sunde
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-12-01
Series:Cogent Economics & Finance
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2506700
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author Moses G. Chamisa
Tafirenyika Sunde
author_facet Moses G. Chamisa
Tafirenyika Sunde
author_sort Moses G. Chamisa
collection DOAJ
description This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of income and consumption tax revenues in Zimbabwe, a country grappling with chronic fiscal instability, elevated debt and a large shadow economy. Leveraging annual data from 1980 to 2022, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing methodology to model both long-run equilibria and short-run adjustments. Distinct from prior research, this study disaggregates income and consumption tax revenues, thereby exposing unique, policy-relevant dynamics across tax categories. Core macroeconomic variables include gross domestic product growth, private consumption, inflation, foreign direct investment, real interest rates, trade openness, informality, agricultural output and demographic trends. Results reveal that private consumption, agricultural output, inflation and real interest rates exert statistically significant effects on tax revenues. In particular, growth in consumption and agriculture enhances revenues, while inflation and high real interest rates erode the tax base. This research contributes novel insights by isolating tax-specific macroeconomic effects, contesting the prevailing assumption of uniform tax determinants. The findings provide crucial guidance for fiscal policy design aimed at strengthening revenue mobilisation and economic resilience amid persistent macroeconomic volatility.
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spelling doaj-art-a2ad5fea6f814391850ec4e8bb7cd6142025-08-20T03:12:26ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2506700The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of ZimbabweMoses G. Chamisa0Tafirenyika Sunde1Midlands State University - Gweru, Gweru, ZimbabweNamibia University of Science and Technology - Windhoek, Khomas Region, NamibiaThis paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of income and consumption tax revenues in Zimbabwe, a country grappling with chronic fiscal instability, elevated debt and a large shadow economy. Leveraging annual data from 1980 to 2022, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing methodology to model both long-run equilibria and short-run adjustments. Distinct from prior research, this study disaggregates income and consumption tax revenues, thereby exposing unique, policy-relevant dynamics across tax categories. Core macroeconomic variables include gross domestic product growth, private consumption, inflation, foreign direct investment, real interest rates, trade openness, informality, agricultural output and demographic trends. Results reveal that private consumption, agricultural output, inflation and real interest rates exert statistically significant effects on tax revenues. In particular, growth in consumption and agriculture enhances revenues, while inflation and high real interest rates erode the tax base. This research contributes novel insights by isolating tax-specific macroeconomic effects, contesting the prevailing assumption of uniform tax determinants. The findings provide crucial guidance for fiscal policy design aimed at strengthening revenue mobilisation and economic resilience amid persistent macroeconomic volatility.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2506700Public economicsTaxation, subsidies and revenuesincome taxconsumption taxmacroeconomic variablessocial factors
spellingShingle Moses G. Chamisa
Tafirenyika Sunde
The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
Cogent Economics & Finance
Public economics
Taxation, subsidies and revenues
income tax
consumption tax
macroeconomic variables
social factors
title The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
title_full The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
title_fullStr The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
title_full_unstemmed The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
title_short The impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues: a case of Zimbabwe
title_sort impact of macroeconomic and social variables on income and consumption tax revenues a case of zimbabwe
topic Public economics
Taxation, subsidies and revenues
income tax
consumption tax
macroeconomic variables
social factors
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2506700
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