Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised questions about the future of work. Debates centre primarily around the possibility of AI displacing some human workers. Predicting the effects of technological transformation on the labour market is challenging. This is especially true...
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Statistics Canada
2024-09-01
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| Series: | Economic and Social Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024009/article/00004-eng.htm |
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| author | Tahsin Mehdi Marc Frenette |
| author_facet | Tahsin Mehdi Marc Frenette |
| author_sort | Tahsin Mehdi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised questions about the future of work. Debates centre primarily around the possibility of AI displacing some human workers. Predicting the effects of technological transformation on the labour market is challenging. This is especially true for AI given the uncertainty surrounding the breadth of its potential; the pace of its development and implementation; and how workers, businesses and governments might react and adapt.
Past studies on technological transformation examined the potential impact of automation on the Canadian labour market (Frenette and Frank, 2020). Automation is generally understood to be the use of machines to perform simple, routine and non-cognitive tasks. AI, on the other hand, can perform complex, non-routine and cognitive tasks. AI’s capabilities are growing, and it is unclear how powerful it may be in the future.
While it is difficult to predict the net impact of AI on jobs in Canada, Mehdi and Morissette (2024)—integrating data from the 2016 and 2021 censuses of population with data from the Occupational Information Network—offer some experimental estimates of occupational exposure to AI using the methodology developed by Felten, Raj and Seamans (2021) and Pizzinelli et al. (2023). The measure used is the complementarity-adjusted AI occupational exposure index, which can classify jobs into three AI groups using the median AI occupational exposure index and complementarity scores: (1) high exposure and low complementarity, (2) high exposure and high complementarity, and (3) low exposure (regardless of the degree of complementarity). The first two groups consist of jobs that may be highly exposed to AI, but the first group may have relatively more tasks that could be replaced by AI in the future, while the second group may have relatively more tasks that are highly complementary with AI. The third group of jobs are those that may be less exposed to AI than the first two groups, regardless of the degree of complementarity.
Employers may not immediately replace human labour with AI, even if it is technologically feasible to do so, because of financial, legal and institutional constraints. Consequently, exposure to AI does not necessarily imply a risk of job loss. At the very least, it could imply a certain degree of job transformation. Given the uncertainty surrounding AI, the experimental estimates presented here should be interpreted with caution. Only time will tell how the impact of AI will unfold. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a2aa658ea6c640ad9ef278b144fab801 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2563-8955 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | Statistics Canada |
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| series | Economic and Social Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-a2aa658ea6c640ad9ef278b144fab8012025-02-06T20:21:55ZengStatistics CanadaEconomic and Social Reports2563-89552024-09-01409https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202400900004-engExposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimatesTahsin Mehdi0Marc Frenette1Statistics CanadaStatistics CanadaRecent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised questions about the future of work. Debates centre primarily around the possibility of AI displacing some human workers. Predicting the effects of technological transformation on the labour market is challenging. This is especially true for AI given the uncertainty surrounding the breadth of its potential; the pace of its development and implementation; and how workers, businesses and governments might react and adapt. Past studies on technological transformation examined the potential impact of automation on the Canadian labour market (Frenette and Frank, 2020). Automation is generally understood to be the use of machines to perform simple, routine and non-cognitive tasks. AI, on the other hand, can perform complex, non-routine and cognitive tasks. AI’s capabilities are growing, and it is unclear how powerful it may be in the future. While it is difficult to predict the net impact of AI on jobs in Canada, Mehdi and Morissette (2024)—integrating data from the 2016 and 2021 censuses of population with data from the Occupational Information Network—offer some experimental estimates of occupational exposure to AI using the methodology developed by Felten, Raj and Seamans (2021) and Pizzinelli et al. (2023). The measure used is the complementarity-adjusted AI occupational exposure index, which can classify jobs into three AI groups using the median AI occupational exposure index and complementarity scores: (1) high exposure and low complementarity, (2) high exposure and high complementarity, and (3) low exposure (regardless of the degree of complementarity). The first two groups consist of jobs that may be highly exposed to AI, but the first group may have relatively more tasks that could be replaced by AI in the future, while the second group may have relatively more tasks that are highly complementary with AI. The third group of jobs are those that may be less exposed to AI than the first two groups, regardless of the degree of complementarity. Employers may not immediately replace human labour with AI, even if it is technologically feasible to do so, because of financial, legal and institutional constraints. Consequently, exposure to AI does not necessarily imply a risk of job loss. At the very least, it could imply a certain degree of job transformation. Given the uncertainty surrounding AI, the experimental estimates presented here should be interpreted with caution. Only time will tell how the impact of AI will unfold.https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024009/article/00004-eng.htmartificial intelligence |
| spellingShingle | Tahsin Mehdi Marc Frenette Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates Economic and Social Reports artificial intelligence |
| title | Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates |
| title_full | Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates |
| title_fullStr | Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates |
| title_short | Exposure to artificial intelligence in Canadian jobs: Experimental estimates |
| title_sort | exposure to artificial intelligence in canadian jobs experimental estimates |
| topic | artificial intelligence |
| url | https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024009/article/00004-eng.htm |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tahsinmehdi exposuretoartificialintelligenceincanadianjobsexperimentalestimates AT marcfrenette exposuretoartificialintelligenceincanadianjobsexperimentalestimates |