Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea.
The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public's attention. Ba...
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| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144778&type=printable |
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| author | Zhi-Qiang Xia Juan Zhang Ya-Kui Xue Gui-Quan Sun Zhen Jin |
| author_facet | Zhi-Qiang Xia Juan Zhang Ya-Kui Xue Gui-Quan Sun Zhen Jin |
| author_sort | Zhi-Qiang Xia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public's attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a2500d329e564653b64009328c50abc6 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-a2500d329e564653b64009328c50abc62025-08-20T02:15:40ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032015-01-011012e014477810.1371/journal.pone.0144778Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea.Zhi-Qiang XiaJuan ZhangYa-Kui XueGui-Quan SunZhen JinThe 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public's attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144778&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Zhi-Qiang Xia Juan Zhang Ya-Kui Xue Gui-Quan Sun Zhen Jin Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. PLoS ONE |
| title | Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. |
| title_full | Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. |
| title_short | Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea. |
| title_sort | modeling the transmission of middle east respirator syndrome corona virus in the republic of korea |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144778&type=printable |
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