Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation.
Understanding the fire prediction capabilities of fuel models is vital to forest fire management. Various fuel models have been developed in the Great Xing'an Mountains in Northeast China. However, the performances of these fuel models have not been tested for historical occurrences of wildfire...
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| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2014-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094043&type=printable |
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| author | Longyan Cai Hong S He Zhiwei Wu Benard L Lewis Yu Liang |
| author_facet | Longyan Cai Hong S He Zhiwei Wu Benard L Lewis Yu Liang |
| author_sort | Longyan Cai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding the fire prediction capabilities of fuel models is vital to forest fire management. Various fuel models have been developed in the Great Xing'an Mountains in Northeast China. However, the performances of these fuel models have not been tested for historical occurrences of wildfires. Consequently, the applicability of these models requires further investigation. Thus, this paper aims to develop standard fuel models. Seven vegetation types were combined into three fuel models according to potential fire behaviors which were clustered using Euclidean distance algorithms. Fuel model parameter sensitivity was analyzed by the Morris screening method. Results showed that the fuel model parameters 1-hour time-lag loading, dead heat content, live heat content, 1-hour time-lag SAV(Surface Area-to-Volume), live shrub SAV, and fuel bed depth have high sensitivity. Two main sensitive fuel parameters: 1-hour time-lag loading and fuel bed depth, were determined as adjustment parameters because of their high spatio-temporal variability. The FARSITE model was then used to test the fire prediction capabilities of the combined fuel models (uncalibrated fuel models). FARSITE was shown to yield an unrealistic prediction of the historical fire. However, the calibrated fuel models significantly improved the capabilities of the fuel models to predict the actual fire with an accuracy of 89%. Validation results also showed that the model can estimate the actual fires with an accuracy exceeding 56% by using the calibrated fuel models. Therefore, these fuel models can be efficiently used to calculate fire behaviors, which can be helpful in forest fire management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a23b8f4e338848c9bfb934839ffe8a31 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-a23b8f4e338848c9bfb934839ffe8a312025-08-20T02:14:42ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032014-01-0194e9404310.1371/journal.pone.0094043Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation.Longyan CaiHong S HeZhiwei WuBenard L LewisYu LiangUnderstanding the fire prediction capabilities of fuel models is vital to forest fire management. Various fuel models have been developed in the Great Xing'an Mountains in Northeast China. However, the performances of these fuel models have not been tested for historical occurrences of wildfires. Consequently, the applicability of these models requires further investigation. Thus, this paper aims to develop standard fuel models. Seven vegetation types were combined into three fuel models according to potential fire behaviors which were clustered using Euclidean distance algorithms. Fuel model parameter sensitivity was analyzed by the Morris screening method. Results showed that the fuel model parameters 1-hour time-lag loading, dead heat content, live heat content, 1-hour time-lag SAV(Surface Area-to-Volume), live shrub SAV, and fuel bed depth have high sensitivity. Two main sensitive fuel parameters: 1-hour time-lag loading and fuel bed depth, were determined as adjustment parameters because of their high spatio-temporal variability. The FARSITE model was then used to test the fire prediction capabilities of the combined fuel models (uncalibrated fuel models). FARSITE was shown to yield an unrealistic prediction of the historical fire. However, the calibrated fuel models significantly improved the capabilities of the fuel models to predict the actual fire with an accuracy of 89%. Validation results also showed that the model can estimate the actual fires with an accuracy exceeding 56% by using the calibrated fuel models. Therefore, these fuel models can be efficiently used to calculate fire behaviors, which can be helpful in forest fire management.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094043&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Longyan Cai Hong S He Zhiwei Wu Benard L Lewis Yu Liang Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. PLoS ONE |
| title | Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. |
| title_full | Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. |
| title_fullStr | Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. |
| title_short | Development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of Northeast China through calibration and validation. |
| title_sort | development of standard fuel models in boreal forests of northeast china through calibration and validation |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094043&type=printable |
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