Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence
Abstract The 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence highlights the need for real-time aftershock and ground-shaking forecasts to support disaster response and risk mitigation. This study applies the space–time epidemic-type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, integrated with a ground motion model, to...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-025-00097-7 |
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| author | Ming-Che Hsieh Min-Hsuan Chang Yu-Chen Tai Chun-Te Chen Ting-Ying Lu |
| author_facet | Ming-Che Hsieh Min-Hsuan Chang Yu-Chen Tai Chun-Te Chen Ting-Ying Lu |
| author_sort | Ming-Che Hsieh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence highlights the need for real-time aftershock and ground-shaking forecasts to support disaster response and risk mitigation. This study applies the space–time epidemic-type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, integrated with a ground motion model, to simulate aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the Dapu earthquake sequence. Using a real-time $${M}_{L}\ge 3.0$$ M L ≥ 3.0 earthquake catalog, seismicity rates are estimated, and 1,000 sets of synthetic earthquake catalogs are generated for each forecast period. Results indicate that the workflow effectively forecasts aftershock activity and shaking intensity, with probabilities for $${M}_{L}\ge 5.0$$ M L ≥ 5.0 events increasing from 30.5% within 1 day to 67.8% within 10 days, aligning with observed aftershocks. The probabilistic ground-shaking intensity forecasts for the Chiayi and Tainan stations demonstrate the model’s accuracy, capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks. This approach enhances operational earthquake and aftershock forecasting, providing actionable insights for emergency preparedness in Taiwan. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a201da56423d4ece94fe44d45467e9df |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1017-0839 2311-7680 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-a201da56423d4ece94fe44d45467e9df2025-08-20T01:56:01ZengSpringerTerrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences1017-08392311-76802025-04-013611810.1007/s44195-025-00097-7Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequenceMing-Che Hsieh0Min-Hsuan Chang1Yu-Chen Tai2Chun-Te Chen3Ting-Ying Lu4Earthquake Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center (E-DREaM), National Central UniversityEarthquake Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center (E-DREaM), National Central UniversityDepartment of Earth Sciences, National Central UniversityDisaster Prevention Technology Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants (Inc.)Department of Earth Sciences, National Central UniversityAbstract The 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence highlights the need for real-time aftershock and ground-shaking forecasts to support disaster response and risk mitigation. This study applies the space–time epidemic-type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, integrated with a ground motion model, to simulate aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the Dapu earthquake sequence. Using a real-time $${M}_{L}\ge 3.0$$ M L ≥ 3.0 earthquake catalog, seismicity rates are estimated, and 1,000 sets of synthetic earthquake catalogs are generated for each forecast period. Results indicate that the workflow effectively forecasts aftershock activity and shaking intensity, with probabilities for $${M}_{L}\ge 5.0$$ M L ≥ 5.0 events increasing from 30.5% within 1 day to 67.8% within 10 days, aligning with observed aftershocks. The probabilistic ground-shaking intensity forecasts for the Chiayi and Tainan stations demonstrate the model’s accuracy, capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of aftershocks. This approach enhances operational earthquake and aftershock forecasting, providing actionable insights for emergency preparedness in Taiwan.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-025-00097-7Dapu earthquakeEpidemic-type aftershock sequenceGround motion model |
| spellingShingle | Ming-Che Hsieh Min-Hsuan Chang Yu-Chen Tai Chun-Te Chen Ting-Ying Lu Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Dapu earthquake Epidemic-type aftershock sequence Ground motion model |
| title | Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence |
| title_full | Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence |
| title_fullStr | Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence |
| title_short | Fast report: performance of the ETAS model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site-specific ground-shaking intensity for the 2025 Dapu, Taiwan, earthquake sequence |
| title_sort | fast report performance of the etas model in forecasting aftershock occurrence and site specific ground shaking intensity for the 2025 dapu taiwan earthquake sequence |
| topic | Dapu earthquake Epidemic-type aftershock sequence Ground motion model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-025-00097-7 |
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