Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.

This study evaluates the potential for green and low-carbon transformation in China's coal-fired power sector by analyzing seven representative scenarios, including projections for total installed capacity, power generation, and coal-fired power metrics before 2050. Carbon emissions are estimat...

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Main Authors: Jianfang Zong, Qing Ding, Haitao Wang, Xinyu Cao, Jie Wei
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324240
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author Jianfang Zong
Qing Ding
Haitao Wang
Xinyu Cao
Jie Wei
author_facet Jianfang Zong
Qing Ding
Haitao Wang
Xinyu Cao
Jie Wei
author_sort Jianfang Zong
collection DOAJ
description This study evaluates the potential for green and low-carbon transformation in China's coal-fired power sector by analyzing seven representative scenarios, including projections for total installed capacity, power generation, and coal-fired power metrics before 2050. Carbon emissions are estimated using a conversion factor of 0.899 kg CO₂ per kWh, while deployment scales and emission reduction potentials for carbon capture technologies are calculated based on IEA (2022) assumptions for low (30%) and high (90%) installation ratios. The study further quantifies installation and operational costs, investment requirements by 2050, and annual investments from 2030 to 2050 under both scenarios. Results demonstrate that high-proportion carbon capture deployment can significantly accelerate the sector's low-carbon transition, fostering an emerging industry worth over 20 trillion yuan and delivering dual benefits of emissions reduction and economic growth. Policy support for large-scale implementation is critical. By pioneering multi-scenario modelling, this research systematically projects China's coal-fired CCUS deployment needs under 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, integrating IEA frameworks with domestic policy scenarios to assess industrial-scale potential and inform decision-making. This work provides the first systematic integration of IEA projections with China-specific policy scenarios, offering policymakers a framework to balance climate targets with energy transition realities.
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institution OA Journals
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language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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spelling doaj-art-a1cdeefa018a42448d96da5360d253bd2025-08-20T02:23:19ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01205e032424010.1371/journal.pone.0324240Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.Jianfang ZongQing DingHaitao WangXinyu CaoJie WeiThis study evaluates the potential for green and low-carbon transformation in China's coal-fired power sector by analyzing seven representative scenarios, including projections for total installed capacity, power generation, and coal-fired power metrics before 2050. Carbon emissions are estimated using a conversion factor of 0.899 kg CO₂ per kWh, while deployment scales and emission reduction potentials for carbon capture technologies are calculated based on IEA (2022) assumptions for low (30%) and high (90%) installation ratios. The study further quantifies installation and operational costs, investment requirements by 2050, and annual investments from 2030 to 2050 under both scenarios. Results demonstrate that high-proportion carbon capture deployment can significantly accelerate the sector's low-carbon transition, fostering an emerging industry worth over 20 trillion yuan and delivering dual benefits of emissions reduction and economic growth. Policy support for large-scale implementation is critical. By pioneering multi-scenario modelling, this research systematically projects China's coal-fired CCUS deployment needs under 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, integrating IEA frameworks with domestic policy scenarios to assess industrial-scale potential and inform decision-making. This work provides the first systematic integration of IEA projections with China-specific policy scenarios, offering policymakers a framework to balance climate targets with energy transition realities.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324240
spellingShingle Jianfang Zong
Qing Ding
Haitao Wang
Xinyu Cao
Jie Wei
Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
PLoS ONE
title Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
title_full Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
title_fullStr Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
title_short Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China's coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050.
title_sort analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of china s coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0324240
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