Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model
Renewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems, necessitating accurate forecasting. Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture the inherent uncertainties associated with intermittent renewable sources and fluc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Energy and AI |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546824001253 |
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| author | Amir Miraki Pekka Parviainen Reza Arghandeh |
| author_facet | Amir Miraki Pekka Parviainen Reza Arghandeh |
| author_sort | Amir Miraki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Renewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems, necessitating accurate forecasting. Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture the inherent uncertainties associated with intermittent renewable sources and fluctuating demand patterns. This paper proposes a novel denoising diffusion method for multivariate time series probabilistic forecasting that explicitly models the interdependencies between variables through graph modeling. Our framework employs a parallel feature extraction module that simultaneously captures temporal dynamics and spatial correlations, enabling improved forecasting accuracy. Through extensive evaluation on two real-world datasets focused on renewable energy and electricity demand, we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in probabilistic energy time series forecasting tasks. By explicitly modeling variable interdependencies and incorporating temporal information, our method provides reliable probabilistic forecasts, crucial for effective decision-making and resource allocation in the energy sector. Extensive experiments validate that our proposed method reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by 2.1%–70.9%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 4.4%–52.2%, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 7.9%–53.4% over existing methods on two real-world datasets. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a1bf653516e14a089b7a721808db7e5a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-5468 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy and AI |
| spelling | doaj-art-a1bf653516e14a089b7a721808db7e5a2025-01-27T04:22:19ZengElsevierEnergy and AI2666-54682025-01-0119100459Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic ModelAmir Miraki0Pekka Parviainen1Reza Arghandeh2Department of Computer Science, Electrical Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Norway; Corresponding author.Department of Informatics, University of Bergen, NorwayDepartment of Computer Science, Electrical Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, NorwayRenewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems, necessitating accurate forecasting. Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture the inherent uncertainties associated with intermittent renewable sources and fluctuating demand patterns. This paper proposes a novel denoising diffusion method for multivariate time series probabilistic forecasting that explicitly models the interdependencies between variables through graph modeling. Our framework employs a parallel feature extraction module that simultaneously captures temporal dynamics and spatial correlations, enabling improved forecasting accuracy. Through extensive evaluation on two real-world datasets focused on renewable energy and electricity demand, we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in probabilistic energy time series forecasting tasks. By explicitly modeling variable interdependencies and incorporating temporal information, our method provides reliable probabilistic forecasts, crucial for effective decision-making and resource allocation in the energy sector. Extensive experiments validate that our proposed method reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) by 2.1%–70.9%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 4.4%–52.2%, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 7.9%–53.4% over existing methods on two real-world datasets.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546824001253Multivariate time seriesGraph neural networkDenoising diffusion probabilistic modelsForecasting |
| spellingShingle | Amir Miraki Pekka Parviainen Reza Arghandeh Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model Energy and AI Multivariate time series Graph neural network Denoising diffusion probabilistic models Forecasting |
| title | Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model |
| title_full | Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model |
| title_short | Probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using Graph-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model |
| title_sort | probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy and electricity demand using graph based denoising diffusion probabilistic model |
| topic | Multivariate time series Graph neural network Denoising diffusion probabilistic models Forecasting |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666546824001253 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT amirmiraki probabilisticforecastingofrenewableenergyandelectricitydemandusinggraphbaseddenoisingdiffusionprobabilisticmodel AT pekkaparviainen probabilisticforecastingofrenewableenergyandelectricitydemandusinggraphbaseddenoisingdiffusionprobabilisticmodel AT rezaarghandeh probabilisticforecastingofrenewableenergyandelectricitydemandusinggraphbaseddenoisingdiffusionprobabilisticmodel |