Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model

Abstract Introduction As maternal age during pregnancy is rising all over the world, there is a growing need for prognostic factors that determine maternal and perinatal outcomes in older women. Material and methods This study is a retrospective cohort study of women aged 40 years or older at the ti...

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Main Authors: Joyce Veenstra, Zoë Cohen, Fleurisca J. Korteweg, David P. van derHam, Simone M. Kuppens, Janna A. Kroese, Brenda B. Hermsen, Marije M. Kamphuis, Joost W. Vanhommerig, Maria G. vanPampus
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-05-01
Series:Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.14765
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author Joyce Veenstra
Zoë Cohen
Fleurisca J. Korteweg
David P. van derHam
Simone M. Kuppens
Janna A. Kroese
Brenda B. Hermsen
Marije M. Kamphuis
Joost W. Vanhommerig
Maria G. vanPampus
author_facet Joyce Veenstra
Zoë Cohen
Fleurisca J. Korteweg
David P. van derHam
Simone M. Kuppens
Janna A. Kroese
Brenda B. Hermsen
Marije M. Kamphuis
Joost W. Vanhommerig
Maria G. vanPampus
author_sort Joyce Veenstra
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Introduction As maternal age during pregnancy is rising all over the world, there is a growing need for prognostic factors that determine maternal and perinatal outcomes in older women. Material and methods This study is a retrospective cohort study of women aged 40 years or older at the time of delivery in four Santeon hospitals across the Netherlands between January 2016 and December 2019. Outcomes were compared between women of 40–44 years (advanced maternal age) and 45 years and older (very advanced maternal age). Primary outcome was unplanned cesarean section, secondary outcomes included postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal outcomes. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to analyze predictive factors for unplanned cesarean sections in women who attempted vaginal delivery. Subsequently, a predictive model and risk scores were constructed to predict unplanned cesarean section. Results A cohort of 1660 women was analyzed; mean maternal age was 41.4 years, 4.8% of the women were 45 years and older. In both groups, more than half of the women had not delivered vaginally before. Unplanned cesarean sections were performed in 21.1% of the deliveries in advanced maternal age and in 29.1% in very advanced maternal age. Four predictive factors were significantly correlated with unplanned cesarean sections: higher body mass index (BMI), no previous vaginal delivery, spontaneous start of delivery and number of days needed for cervical priming. A predictive model was constructed from these factors with an area under the curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.72–0.78). A sensitivity analysis in nulliparous women proved that BMI, days of cervical priming, age, and gestational age were risk factors, whereas spontaneous start of delivery and induction were protective factors. There was one occurrence of neonatal death. Conclusions Women of advanced maternal age and those of very advanced maternal age have a higher chance of having an unplanned cesarean section compared to the general obstetric population in the Netherlands. Unplanned cesarean sections can be predicted through use of our predictive model. Risk increases with higher BMI, no previous vaginal delivery, and increasing number of days needed for cervical priming, whereas spontaneous start of labor lowers the risk. In nulliparous women, age and gestational age also increase risk, but induction lowers the risk of having an unplanned cesarean section.
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spelling doaj-art-a096f73d136e43d594a5f13c2b1bf7672025-08-20T03:22:16ZengWileyActa Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica0001-63491600-04122024-05-01103592793710.1111/aogs.14765Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive modelJoyce Veenstra0Zoë Cohen1Fleurisca J. Korteweg2David P. van derHam3Simone M. Kuppens4Janna A. Kroese5Brenda B. Hermsen6Marije M. Kamphuis7Joost W. Vanhommerig8Maria G. vanPampus9Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Flevoziekenhuis Almere the NetherlandsEmergency Department Dijklander Ziekenhuis Purmerend and Hoorn the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology Martini Hospital Groningen the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology Martini Hospital Groningen the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology Catharina Hospital Eindhoven the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology Medisch Spectrum Twente Enschede the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology OLVG Amsterdam the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology OLVG Amsterdam the NetherlandsDepartment of Research and Epidemiology OLVG Amsterdam the NetherlandsDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology OLVG Amsterdam the NetherlandsAbstract Introduction As maternal age during pregnancy is rising all over the world, there is a growing need for prognostic factors that determine maternal and perinatal outcomes in older women. Material and methods This study is a retrospective cohort study of women aged 40 years or older at the time of delivery in four Santeon hospitals across the Netherlands between January 2016 and December 2019. Outcomes were compared between women of 40–44 years (advanced maternal age) and 45 years and older (very advanced maternal age). Primary outcome was unplanned cesarean section, secondary outcomes included postpartum hemorrhage and neonatal outcomes. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to analyze predictive factors for unplanned cesarean sections in women who attempted vaginal delivery. Subsequently, a predictive model and risk scores were constructed to predict unplanned cesarean section. Results A cohort of 1660 women was analyzed; mean maternal age was 41.4 years, 4.8% of the women were 45 years and older. In both groups, more than half of the women had not delivered vaginally before. Unplanned cesarean sections were performed in 21.1% of the deliveries in advanced maternal age and in 29.1% in very advanced maternal age. Four predictive factors were significantly correlated with unplanned cesarean sections: higher body mass index (BMI), no previous vaginal delivery, spontaneous start of delivery and number of days needed for cervical priming. A predictive model was constructed from these factors with an area under the curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.72–0.78). A sensitivity analysis in nulliparous women proved that BMI, days of cervical priming, age, and gestational age were risk factors, whereas spontaneous start of delivery and induction were protective factors. There was one occurrence of neonatal death. Conclusions Women of advanced maternal age and those of very advanced maternal age have a higher chance of having an unplanned cesarean section compared to the general obstetric population in the Netherlands. Unplanned cesarean sections can be predicted through use of our predictive model. Risk increases with higher BMI, no previous vaginal delivery, and increasing number of days needed for cervical priming, whereas spontaneous start of labor lowers the risk. In nulliparous women, age and gestational age also increase risk, but induction lowers the risk of having an unplanned cesarean section.https://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.14765advanced maternal agematernal outcomeunplanned cesarean sectionvery advanced maternal age
spellingShingle Joyce Veenstra
Zoë Cohen
Fleurisca J. Korteweg
David P. van derHam
Simone M. Kuppens
Janna A. Kroese
Brenda B. Hermsen
Marije M. Kamphuis
Joost W. Vanhommerig
Maria G. vanPampus
Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica
advanced maternal age
maternal outcome
unplanned cesarean section
very advanced maternal age
title Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
title_full Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
title_fullStr Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
title_full_unstemmed Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
title_short Unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age: A predictive model
title_sort unplanned cesarean sections in advanced maternal age a predictive model
topic advanced maternal age
maternal outcome
unplanned cesarean section
very advanced maternal age
url https://doi.org/10.1111/aogs.14765
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