Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis

The ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are causing massive power outages. Ukraine’s electricity system is on the brink of collapse, with approximately 70% of its pre-war power generation capacity lost. Model projections indicate that over the course of 12 months from summer 2...

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Main Authors: Georg Zachmann, Frank Meissner, Iegor Riepin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-05-01
Series:Energy Strategy Reviews
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000872
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author Georg Zachmann
Frank Meissner
Iegor Riepin
author_facet Georg Zachmann
Frank Meissner
Iegor Riepin
author_sort Georg Zachmann
collection DOAJ
description The ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are causing massive power outages. Ukraine’s electricity system is on the brink of collapse, with approximately 70% of its pre-war power generation capacity lost. Model projections indicate that over the course of 12 months from summer 2024 on, load shedding will be required for 7,900 of the 8,760 h in the year (90% of time), with deficits exceeding 4,000 MW for more than 1,000 h and peak shortfalls reaching up to 6,500 MW—about one-third of national peak demand. Technical solutions to address this crisis exist; however, their rapid implementation requires substantial resources and a high level of coordination. Our analysis shows that restoring half of the damaged capacity, enhancing cross-border transfer capacity – specifically by adding an additional 500 MW from Poland – and installing quickly deployable, decentralized generation capacities could drastically reduce load shedding. To achieve these rapid improvements, we propose establishing an “energy situation room” to centralize real-time data, streamline coordination among domestic and international stakeholders, and facilitate targeted investments by local and private actors. This coordinated approach is essential to mitigate the impending energy crisis and bolster Ukraine’s energy resilience ahead of the critical winter period.
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spelling doaj-art-a0942bdf478e491c845cd9b7ea2d0e172025-08-20T03:10:39ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-05-015910172410.1016/j.esr.2025.101724Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisisGeorg Zachmann0Frank Meissner1Iegor Riepin2Bruegel, Belgium; Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, Germany; Corresponding author at: Bruegel, Belgium.Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, GermanyTechnical University of Berlin, GermanyThe ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are causing massive power outages. Ukraine’s electricity system is on the brink of collapse, with approximately 70% of its pre-war power generation capacity lost. Model projections indicate that over the course of 12 months from summer 2024 on, load shedding will be required for 7,900 of the 8,760 h in the year (90% of time), with deficits exceeding 4,000 MW for more than 1,000 h and peak shortfalls reaching up to 6,500 MW—about one-third of national peak demand. Technical solutions to address this crisis exist; however, their rapid implementation requires substantial resources and a high level of coordination. Our analysis shows that restoring half of the damaged capacity, enhancing cross-border transfer capacity – specifically by adding an additional 500 MW from Poland – and installing quickly deployable, decentralized generation capacities could drastically reduce load shedding. To achieve these rapid improvements, we propose establishing an “energy situation room” to centralize real-time data, streamline coordination among domestic and international stakeholders, and facilitate targeted investments by local and private actors. This coordinated approach is essential to mitigate the impending energy crisis and bolster Ukraine’s energy resilience ahead of the critical winter period.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000872Energy crisisEnergy securityElectricity infrastructure
spellingShingle Georg Zachmann
Frank Meissner
Iegor Riepin
Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
Energy Strategy Reviews
Energy crisis
Energy security
Electricity infrastructure
title Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
title_full Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
title_fullStr Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
title_full_unstemmed Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
title_short Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis
title_sort mitigating ukraine s looming electricity crisis
topic Energy crisis
Energy security
Electricity infrastructure
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000872
work_keys_str_mv AT georgzachmann mitigatingukrainesloomingelectricitycrisis
AT frankmeissner mitigatingukrainesloomingelectricitycrisis
AT iegorriepin mitigatingukrainesloomingelectricitycrisis