Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model
The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel da...
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MDPI AG
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Systems |
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| author | Shasha Ding Li Wang Qianchen Zhou |
| author_facet | Shasha Ding Li Wang Qianchen Zhou |
| author_sort | Shasha Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a “core-edge” hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The “China-ASEAN-Japan-Korea “riangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a “small world”. The leading mode of South–South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a067e38cee6344eeb35596f2200ba33d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2079-8954 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-a067e38cee6344eeb35596f2200ba33d2025-08-20T03:32:16ZengMDPI AGSystems2079-89542025-07-0113759310.3390/systems13070593Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM ModelShasha Ding0Li Wang1Qianchen Zhou2College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, ChinaThe agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a “core-edge” hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The “China-ASEAN-Japan-Korea “riangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a “small world”. The leading mode of South–South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/7/593RCEPagricultural product trade networksocial network analysistemporal exponential random graph modelcomplex system |
| spellingShingle | Shasha Ding Li Wang Qianchen Zhou Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model Systems RCEP agricultural product trade network social network analysis temporal exponential random graph model complex system |
| title | Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model |
| title_full | Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model |
| title_fullStr | Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model |
| title_short | Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries—Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model |
| title_sort | study on evolution mechanism of agricultural trade network of rcep countries complex system analysis based on the tergm model |
| topic | RCEP agricultural product trade network social network analysis temporal exponential random graph model complex system |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/7/593 |
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