Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.

Droughts have profound and far-reaching impacts on human health and well-being, but their influence on sexual violence among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is underexamined.This study examines the association between drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls...

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Main Authors: Lucas Hertzog, Marshall Makate, David Chipanta, Boladé Banougnin, Martina Mchenga, Gavin Pereira, Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu, Jennifer Dunne, Paula S Tallman, Shalean Collins, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin, Astghik Mavisakalyan, Ivan C Hanigan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-01-01
Series:PLOS Global Public Health
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752
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author Lucas Hertzog
Marshall Makate
David Chipanta
Boladé Banougnin
Martina Mchenga
Gavin Pereira
Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
Jennifer Dunne
Paula S Tallman
Shalean Collins
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin
Astghik Mavisakalyan
Ivan C Hanigan
author_facet Lucas Hertzog
Marshall Makate
David Chipanta
Boladé Banougnin
Martina Mchenga
Gavin Pereira
Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
Jennifer Dunne
Paula S Tallman
Shalean Collins
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin
Astghik Mavisakalyan
Ivan C Hanigan
author_sort Lucas Hertzog
collection DOAJ
description Droughts have profound and far-reaching impacts on human health and well-being, but their influence on sexual violence among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is underexamined.This study examines the association between drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women globally, using cross-sectional, nationally representative data from the Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) from 2013 and 2019. The sample includes 35,309 females aged 13-24 from 14 countries in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Sexual violence was defined based on unwanted sexual contact, completed or attempted forced penetration, and pressured sexual activity within the past 12 months. Drought exposure captured intensity and duration of drought conditions measured using the Global Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a 48-month period before surveys. Bayesian Generalized Linear Models were employed to estimate the association between drought exposure and reported experiences of sexual violence, controlling for age, relationship status, school attendance, and wealth. The analysis revealed that exposure to prolonged and extreme drought, lasting 8-43 months in a 48-month period, was associated with higher odds of sexual violence (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Very dry periods are also associated with increased odds of experiencing sexual violence (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.05). In contrast with extreme conditions, exposure to slight to moderate drought and recent and long periods suggested potential protective effects.This study provides novel evidence of an association between extreme drought and an increased likelihood of sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women in LMICs. The findings emphasise how climate change can exacerbate social vulnerabilities through its indirect effects, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments of its impact on vulnerable populations.
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spelling doaj-art-9fd0a9eab7fb4e509fab68031c5038a42025-08-20T03:32:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLOS Global Public Health2767-33752025-01-0156e000475210.1371/journal.pgph.0004752Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.Lucas HertzogMarshall MakateDavid ChipantaBoladé BanougninMartina MchengaGavin PereiraSylvester Dodzi NyadanuJennifer DunnePaula S TallmanShalean CollinsKefyalew Addis AlenePauline Rousseau-GueutinAstghik MavisakalyanIvan C HaniganDroughts have profound and far-reaching impacts on human health and well-being, but their influence on sexual violence among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is underexamined.This study examines the association between drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women globally, using cross-sectional, nationally representative data from the Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) from 2013 and 2019. The sample includes 35,309 females aged 13-24 from 14 countries in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Sexual violence was defined based on unwanted sexual contact, completed or attempted forced penetration, and pressured sexual activity within the past 12 months. Drought exposure captured intensity and duration of drought conditions measured using the Global Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a 48-month period before surveys. Bayesian Generalized Linear Models were employed to estimate the association between drought exposure and reported experiences of sexual violence, controlling for age, relationship status, school attendance, and wealth. The analysis revealed that exposure to prolonged and extreme drought, lasting 8-43 months in a 48-month period, was associated with higher odds of sexual violence (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Very dry periods are also associated with increased odds of experiencing sexual violence (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.05). In contrast with extreme conditions, exposure to slight to moderate drought and recent and long periods suggested potential protective effects.This study provides novel evidence of an association between extreme drought and an increased likelihood of sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women in LMICs. The findings emphasise how climate change can exacerbate social vulnerabilities through its indirect effects, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments of its impact on vulnerable populations.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752
spellingShingle Lucas Hertzog
Marshall Makate
David Chipanta
Boladé Banougnin
Martina Mchenga
Gavin Pereira
Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
Jennifer Dunne
Paula S Tallman
Shalean Collins
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin
Astghik Mavisakalyan
Ivan C Hanigan
Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
PLOS Global Public Health
title Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
title_full Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
title_fullStr Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
title_full_unstemmed Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
title_short Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study.
title_sort extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women a multi country population based study
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752
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