Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets
Abstract The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x |
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| author | Wenjie Dong Qi Ran Fei Liu Rong Deng Jie Yang Kaixi Wang Xinyue Wang Duofan Zheng Chenhao Li Wenjun Liang Jieming Chou Wenping Yuan Deliang Chen |
| author_facet | Wenjie Dong Qi Ran Fei Liu Rong Deng Jie Yang Kaixi Wang Xinyue Wang Duofan Zheng Chenhao Li Wenjun Liang Jieming Chou Wenping Yuan Deliang Chen |
| author_sort | Wenjie Dong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9fae102f9bb14ffaab059061ee548fd3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-9fae102f9bb14ffaab059061ee548fd32025-08-20T02:34:14ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-05-011611810.1038/s41467-025-59877-xRising military spending jeopardizes climate targetsWenjie Dong0Qi Ran1Fei Liu2Rong Deng3Jie Yang4Kaixi Wang5Xinyue Wang6Duofan Zheng7Chenhao Li8Wenjun Liang9Jieming Chou10Wenping Yuan11Deliang Chen12School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratorySchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryInstitute of Disaster Risk Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua UniversityAbstract The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x |
| spellingShingle | Wenjie Dong Qi Ran Fei Liu Rong Deng Jie Yang Kaixi Wang Xinyue Wang Duofan Zheng Chenhao Li Wenjun Liang Jieming Chou Wenping Yuan Deliang Chen Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets Nature Communications |
| title | Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| title_full | Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| title_fullStr | Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| title_short | Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| title_sort | rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x |
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