Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks
A mathematical description of sub-adult cephalopod Instantaneous Growth Rate (1–120 days after hatching) was formulated as a multistage function, combining a Gaussian function during the post-hatching stages and an exponential decay function during the transition to the pre-adult stages. A set of ca...
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Elsevier
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Ecological Informatics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003541 |
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| author | Enrico Nicola Armelloni Giuseppe Scarcella André E. Punt |
| author_facet | Enrico Nicola Armelloni Giuseppe Scarcella André E. Punt |
| author_sort | Enrico Nicola Armelloni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A mathematical description of sub-adult cephalopod Instantaneous Growth Rate (1–120 days after hatching) was formulated as a multistage function, combining a Gaussian function during the post-hatching stages and an exponential decay function during the transition to the pre-adult stages. A set of candidate mixed effects models was formulated where random parameters derived from a common (hyper)distribution were associated with each experiment and where fixed effects were used to account for dependency on temperature, food type and food amount. The candidate models were fitted to data collected from published aquaculture experiments using a Bayesian hierarchical approach and evaluated using quantitative diagnostics and performance metrics. The results showed that including covariates and random effects improved the ability of the model to fit the data. Growth was found to increase rapidly at low food rations but at a decreasing rate as the food supply becomes abundant. The relationship between temperature and growth transitioned from positive to negative approaching the sub-adult stage. Mixtures of small and medium shrimp were found to lead to higher growth during the first weeks after hatching, while grass shrimp were preferred thereafter. The meta-analytic estimation approach allowed information to be leveraged from multiple studies while accounting for the uncertainty induced by variation in experimental setups. Model posteriors were used to predict growth rate and weight at age, which were compared to out of sample data from aquaculture and wild captured individuals. We discuss how the proposed model can be used to make predictions for the growth of common cuttlefish in aquaculture and fisheries studies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9f8c557388b142ffb52763f508fbeb7c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1574-9541 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Informatics |
| spelling | doaj-art-9f8c557388b142ffb52763f508fbeb7c2025-08-20T05:05:54ZengElsevierEcological Informatics1574-95412025-12-019010334510.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103345Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocksEnrico Nicola Armelloni0Giuseppe Scarcella1André E. Punt2Institute for Biological Resources and Marine Biotechnology (IRBIM), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Ancona, Italy; University of Bologna, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, 40126 Bologna, Italy; Corresponding author at: Institute for Biological Resources and Marine Biotechnology (IRBIM), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Ancona, Italy.Institute for Biological Resources and Marine Biotechnology (IRBIM), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Ancona, ItalySchool of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USAA mathematical description of sub-adult cephalopod Instantaneous Growth Rate (1–120 days after hatching) was formulated as a multistage function, combining a Gaussian function during the post-hatching stages and an exponential decay function during the transition to the pre-adult stages. A set of candidate mixed effects models was formulated where random parameters derived from a common (hyper)distribution were associated with each experiment and where fixed effects were used to account for dependency on temperature, food type and food amount. The candidate models were fitted to data collected from published aquaculture experiments using a Bayesian hierarchical approach and evaluated using quantitative diagnostics and performance metrics. The results showed that including covariates and random effects improved the ability of the model to fit the data. Growth was found to increase rapidly at low food rations but at a decreasing rate as the food supply becomes abundant. The relationship between temperature and growth transitioned from positive to negative approaching the sub-adult stage. Mixtures of small and medium shrimp were found to lead to higher growth during the first weeks after hatching, while grass shrimp were preferred thereafter. The meta-analytic estimation approach allowed information to be leveraged from multiple studies while accounting for the uncertainty induced by variation in experimental setups. Model posteriors were used to predict growth rate and weight at age, which were compared to out of sample data from aquaculture and wild captured individuals. We discuss how the proposed model can be used to make predictions for the growth of common cuttlefish in aquaculture and fisheries studies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003541Bayesian hierarchical modelsSepia officinalisAquaculture experimentsGrowth modelInstantaneous growth rateCephalopods |
| spellingShingle | Enrico Nicola Armelloni Giuseppe Scarcella André E. Punt Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks Ecological Informatics Bayesian hierarchical models Sepia officinalis Aquaculture experiments Growth model Instantaneous growth rate Cephalopods |
| title | Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| title_full | Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| title_fullStr | Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| title_short | Integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling: a model for common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis Linnaeus, 1758) growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| title_sort | integrating published experimental data and hierarchical bayesian modeling a model for common cuttlefish sepia officinalis linnaeus 1758 growth to improve predictions for aquaculture and wild stocks |
| topic | Bayesian hierarchical models Sepia officinalis Aquaculture experiments Growth model Instantaneous growth rate Cephalopods |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954125003541 |
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