Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality

This study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To con...

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Main Authors: Girolamo Franchetti, Carmela Iorio, Massimiliano Politano
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Mathematics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2368
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author Girolamo Franchetti
Carmela Iorio
Massimiliano Politano
author_facet Girolamo Franchetti
Carmela Iorio
Massimiliano Politano
author_sort Girolamo Franchetti
collection DOAJ
description This study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To conduct a comparative analysis of mortality estimates, two classical models were employed: the Lee–Carter and the Renshaw–Haberman models. The analysis involved utilising actuarial tables and mortality models to quantify pandemic-induced excess deaths by calculating the disparity between these estimates. The proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive and clear understanding of the impact of the pandemic on mortality in Italy.
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spelling doaj-art-9f3e275a8b5b41498e67ed4b933469ee2025-08-20T03:36:31ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-07-011315236810.3390/math13152368Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian MortalityGirolamo Franchetti0Carmela Iorio1Massimiliano Politano2Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, ItalyDepartment of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, ItalyDepartment of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, ItalyThis study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To conduct a comparative analysis of mortality estimates, two classical models were employed: the Lee–Carter and the Renshaw–Haberman models. The analysis involved utilising actuarial tables and mortality models to quantify pandemic-induced excess deaths by calculating the disparity between these estimates. The proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive and clear understanding of the impact of the pandemic on mortality in Italy.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2368actuarial tablesCOVID-19excess mortality
spellingShingle Girolamo Franchetti
Carmela Iorio
Massimiliano Politano
Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
Mathematics
actuarial tables
COVID-19
excess mortality
title Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
title_full Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
title_fullStr Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
title_full_unstemmed Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
title_short Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality
title_sort statistical analysis of covid 19 impact on italian mortality
topic actuarial tables
COVID-19
excess mortality
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/15/2368
work_keys_str_mv AT girolamofranchetti statisticalanalysisofcovid19impactonitalianmortality
AT carmelaiorio statisticalanalysisofcovid19impactonitalianmortality
AT massimilianopolitano statisticalanalysisofcovid19impactonitalianmortality