Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap

This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found i...

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Main Authors: Xiaoming Liu, W. John Braun
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2010-01-01
Series:Journal of Probability and Statistics
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/813583
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author Xiaoming Liu
W. John Braun
author_facet Xiaoming Liu
W. John Braun
author_sort Xiaoming Liu
collection DOAJ
description This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found in the residuals. As a result, the prediction intervals we obtain for life expectancy are more accurate than the ones obtained from other similar methods.
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spelling doaj-art-9f234ce30e33480cae9e6ea3fec9278b2025-08-20T02:18:33ZengWileyJournal of Probability and Statistics1687-952X1687-95382010-01-01201010.1155/2010/813583813583Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block BootstrapXiaoming Liu0W. John Braun1Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B7, CanadaDepartment of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B7, CanadaThis paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found in the residuals. As a result, the prediction intervals we obtain for life expectancy are more accurate than the ones obtained from other similar methods.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/813583
spellingShingle Xiaoming Liu
W. John Braun
Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
Journal of Probability and Statistics
title Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
title_full Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
title_fullStr Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
title_full_unstemmed Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
title_short Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
title_sort investigating mortality uncertainty using the block bootstrap
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/813583
work_keys_str_mv AT xiaomingliu investigatingmortalityuncertaintyusingtheblockbootstrap
AT wjohnbraun investigatingmortalityuncertaintyusingtheblockbootstrap