Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap
This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found i...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2010-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/813583 |
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| Summary: | This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk (the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk) properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found in the residuals. As a result, the prediction intervals we obtain for life expectancy are more accurate than the ones obtained from other similar methods. |
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| ISSN: | 1687-952X 1687-9538 |