Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
Introduction Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046. Methods This study conducted a s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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European Publishing
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.html |
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| _version_ | 1850174012376743936 |
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| author | Kai Qi Honghui Cheng Yiwei Jiang Yichun Zheng |
| author_facet | Kai Qi Honghui Cheng Yiwei Jiang Yichun Zheng |
| author_sort | Kai Qi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction
Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease
(GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal
trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make
projections up to the year 2046.
Methods
This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable
bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using
the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and
smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco
products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average
annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time.
Results
From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years
(DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The
age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI:
-1.62 – -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline,
with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 – -1.56). The regions that experienced
the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe
and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI)
values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR
for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among
males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths
are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046.
Conclusions
Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer,
the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore,
continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are
needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And
due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and
female populations should not be neglected. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9f1fb050bffe4f57ba6e5b2c67837532 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1617-9625 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | European Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-9f1fb050bffe4f57ba6e5b2c678375322025-08-20T02:19:44ZengEuropean PublishingTobacco Induced Diseases1617-96252025-03-0123March11310.18332/tid/202237202237Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046Kai Qi0https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0058-2203Honghui Cheng1Yiwei Jiang2Yichun Zheng3Department of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaIntroduction Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046. Methods This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 – -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 – -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046. Conclusions Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.htmlglobal burden of diseasebladder cancerage-standardized ratesocioeconomicprojection |
| spellingShingle | Kai Qi Honghui Cheng Yiwei Jiang Yichun Zheng Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 Tobacco Induced Diseases global burden of disease bladder cancer age-standardized rate socioeconomic projection |
| title | Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| title_full | Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| title_fullStr | Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| title_short | Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| title_sort | contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046 |
| topic | global burden of disease bladder cancer age-standardized rate socioeconomic projection |
| url | https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.html |
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