Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046

Introduction Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046. Methods This study conducted a s...

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Main Authors: Kai Qi, Honghui Cheng, Yiwei Jiang, Yichun Zheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: European Publishing 2025-03-01
Series:Tobacco Induced Diseases
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Online Access:https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.html
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author Kai Qi
Honghui Cheng
Yiwei Jiang
Yichun Zheng
author_facet Kai Qi
Honghui Cheng
Yiwei Jiang
Yichun Zheng
author_sort Kai Qi
collection DOAJ
description Introduction Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046. Methods This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 – -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 – -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046. Conclusions Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.
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spelling doaj-art-9f1fb050bffe4f57ba6e5b2c678375322025-08-20T02:19:44ZengEuropean PublishingTobacco Induced Diseases1617-96252025-03-0123March11310.18332/tid/202237202237Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046Kai Qi0https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0058-2203Honghui Cheng1Yiwei Jiang2Yichun Zheng3Department of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Urology, the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of School of Medicine, and International School of Medicine, International Institutes of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Yiwu, People’s Republic of ChinaIntroduction Based on the results extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the objective of this research is to examine the spatiotemporal trends of bladder cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021, and to make projections up to the year 2046. Methods This study conducted a secondary dataset analysis of smoking-attributable bladder cancer data extracted from GBD 2021. Bladder cancer was classified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) in GBD, and smoking exposure was defined as both current and past use of smoked tobacco products. By employing a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was determined to examine trends over time. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to smoking-attributable bladder cancer increased significantly. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased, with an AAPC of -1.54 (95% CI: -1.62 – -1.46). The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDLR) also showed a decline, with an AAPC of -1.68 (95% CI: -1.81 – -1.56). The regions that experienced the most significant age-standardized rate (ASR) burden were Central Europe and Western Europe. Regions with high-medium sociodemographic index (SDI) values had the highest number of deaths and DALYs, as well as the highest ASR for both indicators. The heaviest global disease burden is concentrated among males and individuals aged ≥70 years. Smoking-attributable bladder cancer deaths are projected to rise over the next 25 years, reaching 90021.45 by 2046. Conclusions Despite a decrease in the ASRs of smoking-attributable bladder cancer, the absolute burden has increased and is expected to continue growing. Therefore, continuous and targeted tobacco control measures and medical strategies are needed, especially for developed regions, the elderly, and male populations. And due to the unique mechanisms by which tobacco causes disease, the youth and female populations should not be neglected.https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.htmlglobal burden of diseasebladder cancerage-standardized ratesocioeconomicprojection
spellingShingle Kai Qi
Honghui Cheng
Yiwei Jiang
Yichun Zheng
Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
Tobacco Induced Diseases
global burden of disease
bladder cancer
age-standardized rate
socioeconomic
projection
title Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
title_full Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
title_fullStr Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
title_full_unstemmed Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
title_short Contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
title_sort contribution of smoking to the global burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046
topic global burden of disease
bladder cancer
age-standardized rate
socioeconomic
projection
url https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Contribution-of-smoking-to-the-global-burden-of-bladder-cancer-from-1990-to-2021,202237,0,2.html
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AT yiweijiang contributionofsmokingtotheglobalburdenofbladdercancerfrom1990to2021andprojectionsto2046
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