Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life
A wide variety of scenarios for the origin of life have been proposed, with many influencing the prevalence and distribution of biosignatures across exoplanet populations. This relationship suggests these scenarios can be tested by predicting biosignature distributions and comparing them with empiri...
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | The Astrophysical Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/adc8a9 |
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| author | Martin Schlecker Dániel Apai Antonin Affholder Sukrit Ranjan Régis Ferrière Kevin K. Hardegree-Ullman Tim Lichtenberg Stéphane Mazevet |
| author_facet | Martin Schlecker Dániel Apai Antonin Affholder Sukrit Ranjan Régis Ferrière Kevin K. Hardegree-Ullman Tim Lichtenberg Stéphane Mazevet |
| author_sort | Martin Schlecker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A wide variety of scenarios for the origin of life have been proposed, with many influencing the prevalence and distribution of biosignatures across exoplanet populations. This relationship suggests these scenarios can be tested by predicting biosignature distributions and comparing them with empirical data. Here, we demonstrate this approach by focusing on the cyanosulfidic origins-of-life scenario and investigating the hypothesis that a minimum near-ultraviolet (NUV) flux is necessary for abiogenesis. Using Bayesian modeling and the Bioverse survey simulator, we constrain the probability of obtaining strong evidence for or against this “UV Threshold Hypothesis” with future biosignature surveys. Our results indicate that a correlation between past NUV flux and current biosignature occurrence is testable for sample sizes of ≳50 planets. The diagnostic power of such tests is critically sensitive to the intrinsic abiogenesis rate and host star properties, particularly maximum past NUV fluxes. Surveys targeting a wide range of fluxes, and planets orbiting M dwarfs enhance the chances of conclusive results, with sample sizes ≳100 providing ≳80% likelihood of strong evidence if abiogenesis rates are high and the required NUV fluxes are moderate. For required fluxes exceeding a few hundred erg s ^−1 cm ^−2 , both the fraction of inhabited planets and the diagnostic power sharply decrease. Our findings demonstrate the potential of exoplanet surveys to test origins-of-life hypotheses. Beyond specific scenarios, this work underscores the broader value of realistic survey simulations for future observatories (e.g., Habitable Worlds Observatory, LIFE, Extremely Large Telescopes, Nautilus) in identifying testable science questions, optimizing mission strategies, and advancing theoretical and experimental studies of abiogenesis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9ed7032e54fd4856b4067b623e58fbb9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1538-4357 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Astrophysical Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-9ed7032e54fd4856b4067b623e58fbb92025-08-20T02:21:46ZengIOP PublishingThe Astrophysical Journal1538-43572025-01-0198712410.3847/1538-4357/adc8a9Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of LifeMartin Schlecker0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8355-2107Dániel Apai1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3714-5855Antonin Affholder2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3481-0952Sukrit Ranjan3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5147-9053Régis Ferrière4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5806-5566Kevin K. Hardegree-Ullman5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3702-0382Tim Lichtenberg6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3286-7683Stéphane Mazevet7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3557-6256Steward Observatory, The University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USA ; schlecker@arizona.eduSteward Observatory, The University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USA ; schlecker@arizona.edu; Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona , Tucson AZ, USALunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USA; Blue Marble Space Institute of Science , Seattle, WA 98104, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona , Tucson AZ, USA; Institut de Biologie de l’École Normale Supérieure , ENS, PSL, Paris, France; International Research Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Global Environmental Studies (iGLOBES) , CNRS, ENS, PSL, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USASteward Observatory, The University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721, USA ; schlecker@arizona.edu; Caltech/IPAC-NASA Exoplanet Science Institute , 1200 E. California Boulevard, MC 100-22, Pasadena, CA 91125, USAKapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen , PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The NetherlandsObservatoire de la Côte d’Azur, Université Côte d’Azur , Nice, FranceA wide variety of scenarios for the origin of life have been proposed, with many influencing the prevalence and distribution of biosignatures across exoplanet populations. This relationship suggests these scenarios can be tested by predicting biosignature distributions and comparing them with empirical data. Here, we demonstrate this approach by focusing on the cyanosulfidic origins-of-life scenario and investigating the hypothesis that a minimum near-ultraviolet (NUV) flux is necessary for abiogenesis. Using Bayesian modeling and the Bioverse survey simulator, we constrain the probability of obtaining strong evidence for or against this “UV Threshold Hypothesis” with future biosignature surveys. Our results indicate that a correlation between past NUV flux and current biosignature occurrence is testable for sample sizes of ≳50 planets. The diagnostic power of such tests is critically sensitive to the intrinsic abiogenesis rate and host star properties, particularly maximum past NUV fluxes. Surveys targeting a wide range of fluxes, and planets orbiting M dwarfs enhance the chances of conclusive results, with sample sizes ≳100 providing ≳80% likelihood of strong evidence if abiogenesis rates are high and the required NUV fluxes are moderate. For required fluxes exceeding a few hundred erg s ^−1 cm ^−2 , both the fraction of inhabited planets and the diagnostic power sharply decrease. Our findings demonstrate the potential of exoplanet surveys to test origins-of-life hypotheses. Beyond specific scenarios, this work underscores the broader value of realistic survey simulations for future observatories (e.g., Habitable Worlds Observatory, LIFE, Extremely Large Telescopes, Nautilus) in identifying testable science questions, optimizing mission strategies, and advancing theoretical and experimental studies of abiogenesis.https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/adc8a9AstrobiologyBiosignaturesPre-biotic astrochemistryNear ultraviolet astronomyBayesian statisticsAstrostatistics strategies |
| spellingShingle | Martin Schlecker Dániel Apai Antonin Affholder Sukrit Ranjan Régis Ferrière Kevin K. Hardegree-Ullman Tim Lichtenberg Stéphane Mazevet Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life The Astrophysical Journal Astrobiology Biosignatures Pre-biotic astrochemistry Near ultraviolet astronomy Bayesian statistics Astrostatistics strategies |
| title | Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life |
| title_full | Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life |
| title_fullStr | Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life |
| title_short | Bioverse: Potentially Observable Exoplanet Biosignature Patterns under the UV Threshold Hypothesis for the Origin of Life |
| title_sort | bioverse potentially observable exoplanet biosignature patterns under the uv threshold hypothesis for the origin of life |
| topic | Astrobiology Biosignatures Pre-biotic astrochemistry Near ultraviolet astronomy Bayesian statistics Astrostatistics strategies |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/adc8a9 |
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