Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021
Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regressio...
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Komiyama Printing Co. Ltd
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine |
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| author | Talaiti Tuergan Aimitaji Abulaiti Alimu Tulahong Ruiqing Zhang Yingmei Shao Tuerganaili Aji |
| author_facet | Talaiti Tuergan Aimitaji Abulaiti Alimu Tulahong Ruiqing Zhang Yingmei Shao Tuerganaili Aji |
| author_sort | Talaiti Tuergan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. Results: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. Conclusion: While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9ebd1952c1944f8cbf2a77af4b83efaf |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1342-078X 1347-4715 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Komiyama Printing Co. Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-9ebd1952c1944f8cbf2a77af4b83efaf2025-08-20T02:46:27ZengKomiyama Printing Co. LtdEnvironmental Health and Preventive Medicine1342-078X1347-47152025-07-0130545410.1265/ehpm.25-00038ehpmGlobal, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021Talaiti Tuergan0Aimitaji Abulaiti1Alimu Tulahong2Ruiqing Zhang3Yingmei Shao4Tuerganaili Aji5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6737-8874Hepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityHepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityHepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityHepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityHepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityHepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department, Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityBackground: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria pose a major health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Initially, we performed a descriptive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, categorizing data by subtypes. Next, linear regression models were employed to analyze temporal trends. We then utilized four predictive models to forecast the future burden. Additionally, we explored the relationship between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs), as well as Human Development Index (HDI) scores for 2021. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was applied to assess the influence of aging, population dynamics, and epidemiological changes. Lastly, frontier analysis was conducted to examine the connection between disease burden and sociodemographic development. Results: In 2021, NTDs and malaria contributed significantly to the global disease burden, with considerable disparities across genders, age groups, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, GBD regions, and individual countries. From 1990 to 2021, both the number of cases and the associated ASRs have shown a recent downward trend. The EAPCs are positively correlated with ASRs and HDI scores. Projections indicate a continued decline in disease burden through 2046. Additionally, our decomposition analysis highlighted the positive impact of aging and epidemiological shifts on the reduction of the disease burden. Finally, frontier analysis revealed that countries and regions with higher SDI scores have greater potential for further reducing their health burden. Conclusion: While the global burden of NTDs and malaria has improved overall, significant disparities remain across regions and countries. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted intervention strategies and maintaining sustained investments to tackle the ongoing challenges.https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ehpm/30/0/30_25-00038/_html/-char/enneglected tropical diseases and malariaburden of diseasegbd19902021 |
| spellingShingle | Talaiti Tuergan Aimitaji Abulaiti Alimu Tulahong Ruiqing Zhang Yingmei Shao Tuerganaili Aji Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine neglected tropical diseases and malaria burden of disease gbd 1990 2021 |
| title | Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, 1990–2021 |
| title_sort | global regional and national burden of neglected tropical diseases and malaria 1990 2021 |
| topic | neglected tropical diseases and malaria burden of disease gbd 1990 2021 |
| url | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ehpm/30/0/30_25-00038/_html/-char/en |
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