The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia
The critical challenge in reservoir management is optimizing reservoir volume by balancing inflow and outflow discharges. Achieving this balance is essential not only to meet downstream water demands but also to preserve the reservoir's ecological function and structural integrity. Accurate inf...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Water Cycle |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666445325000169 |
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| author | Merri Jayanti Dyah Marganingrum Nicco Plamonia Heru Santoso Mariana Marselina Herto Dwi Ariesyady Arwin Sabar |
| author_facet | Merri Jayanti Dyah Marganingrum Nicco Plamonia Heru Santoso Mariana Marselina Herto Dwi Ariesyady Arwin Sabar |
| author_sort | Merri Jayanti |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The critical challenge in reservoir management is optimizing reservoir volume by balancing inflow and outflow discharges. Achieving this balance is essential not only to meet downstream water demands but also to preserve the reservoir's ecological function and structural integrity. Accurate inflow estimation plays an important role in this process, as it directly impacts the calculation of outflow discharges and the stability of reservoir volume. This study aims to compare the performance of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Continuous, and Markov Chain models in the estimating inflow discharge of Jatigede reservoir in West Java Province, Indonesia as a case study. Many studies conducted for inflow discharge estimation, from the most sophisticated to the simplest. However, the performance of model depends on its accuracy to the observation data. In this study, the results underscore the significance of inflow estimation, showing that the Continuous model yields the highest correlation (0.944), the lowest RMSE (0.408), and MAE (0.115). In contrast, the Markov Chain model exhibits a correlation of 0.923, RMSE of 0.443 and MAE of 0.116, while ARIMA model reports a correlation of 0.792, RMSE of 0.621, and MAE of 0.278. The findings of study indicated that the Continuous model has given better accuracy in inflow estimation, so it the most suitable approach for optimizing reservoir management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e9c3a65231d4a48b88d3df7fe115b4b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2666-4453 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Cycle |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e9c3a65231d4a48b88d3df7fe115b4b2025-08-20T02:30:19ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Water Cycle2666-44532025-01-01639941110.1016/j.watcyc.2025.04.002The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, IndonesiaMerri Jayanti0Dyah Marganingrum1Nicco Plamonia2Heru Santoso3Mariana Marselina4Herto Dwi Ariesyady5Arwin Sabar6Research Center for Environmental and Clean Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, KST Samaun Samadikun, Bandung, 40135, Indonesia; Corresponding author.Research Center for Environmental and Clean Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, KST Samaun Samadikun, Bandung, 40135, IndonesiaResearch Center for Environmental and Clean Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, KST Samaun Samadikun, Bandung, 40135, IndonesiaResearch Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Research and Innovation Agency, KST Samaun Samadikun, Bandung, 40135, IndonesiaDepartment of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha, Bandung, 40132, IndonesiaDepartment of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha, Bandung, 40132, IndonesiaDepartment of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha, Bandung, 40132, IndonesiaThe critical challenge in reservoir management is optimizing reservoir volume by balancing inflow and outflow discharges. Achieving this balance is essential not only to meet downstream water demands but also to preserve the reservoir's ecological function and structural integrity. Accurate inflow estimation plays an important role in this process, as it directly impacts the calculation of outflow discharges and the stability of reservoir volume. This study aims to compare the performance of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Continuous, and Markov Chain models in the estimating inflow discharge of Jatigede reservoir in West Java Province, Indonesia as a case study. Many studies conducted for inflow discharge estimation, from the most sophisticated to the simplest. However, the performance of model depends on its accuracy to the observation data. In this study, the results underscore the significance of inflow estimation, showing that the Continuous model yields the highest correlation (0.944), the lowest RMSE (0.408), and MAE (0.115). In contrast, the Markov Chain model exhibits a correlation of 0.923, RMSE of 0.443 and MAE of 0.116, while ARIMA model reports a correlation of 0.792, RMSE of 0.621, and MAE of 0.278. The findings of study indicated that the Continuous model has given better accuracy in inflow estimation, so it the most suitable approach for optimizing reservoir management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666445325000169Hydrological predictionInflow estimationReservoir optimizationStochastic modellingTime series modelling |
| spellingShingle | Merri Jayanti Dyah Marganingrum Nicco Plamonia Heru Santoso Mariana Marselina Herto Dwi Ariesyady Arwin Sabar The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia Water Cycle Hydrological prediction Inflow estimation Reservoir optimization Stochastic modelling Time series modelling |
| title | The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia |
| title_full | The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia |
| title_short | The operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between ARIMA, continuous, and Markov Chain models on Jatigede reservoir, Indonesia |
| title_sort | operation optimization of multipurpose reservoir between arima continuous and markov chain models on jatigede reservoir indonesia |
| topic | Hydrological prediction Inflow estimation Reservoir optimization Stochastic modelling Time series modelling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666445325000169 |
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