Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100
Abstract Mediterranean coastal wetlands account for important biodiversity and ecosystem services. But climate-change induced sea-level rise poses a critical risk to their survival. Here, we assess these risks for Mediterranean coastal marshes, one key type of Mediterranean coastal wetlands, and ide...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02099-2 |
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| author | Mark Schuerch Joshua Kiesel Olivier Boutron Anis Guelmami Claudia Wolff Wolfgang Cramer Nuno Caiola Carles Ibáñez Athanasios T. Vafeidis |
| author_facet | Mark Schuerch Joshua Kiesel Olivier Boutron Anis Guelmami Claudia Wolff Wolfgang Cramer Nuno Caiola Carles Ibáñez Athanasios T. Vafeidis |
| author_sort | Mark Schuerch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Mediterranean coastal wetlands account for important biodiversity and ecosystem services. But climate-change induced sea-level rise poses a critical risk to their survival. Here, we assess these risks for Mediterranean coastal marshes, one key type of Mediterranean coastal wetlands, and identify main drivers for future coastal marsh change for the Mediterranean and comparable coastlines. We apply an integrated modelling approach that accounts for future sea-level rise, sediment accretion, coastal management and marsh inland migration processes. Depending on climate mitigation scenarios, widespread coastal marsh loss is projected, ranging from 8% to 92% of current extents. For Egypt, France, and Algeria, we predict (near) total loss of coastal marshes by 2100 for current coastal management and sediment supply scenarios. Overall, losses could at least be halved if additional inland migration space were created, e.g. through passive or active habitat restoration. Bold climate mitigation and local adaptation are needed to preserve existing coastal marshes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e7264734b5c4dd5a2f85fcc38495cfc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e7264734b5c4dd5a2f85fcc38495cfc2025-08-20T02:15:16ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-02-016111310.1038/s43247-025-02099-2Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100Mark Schuerch0Joshua Kiesel1Olivier Boutron2Anis Guelmami3Claudia Wolff4Wolfgang Cramer5Nuno Caiola6Carles Ibáñez7Athanasios T. Vafeidis8Catchments and Coasts Research Group, Department of Geography, University of LincolnCoastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts-University KielTour du Valat Research InstituteTour du Valat Research InstituteCoastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts-University KielMediterranean Institute of Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecology, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon UniversitéDepartment of Climate Solutions & Ecosystem Services, Area of Sustainability, EURECAT, Technological Centre of CataloniaDepartment of Climate Solutions & Ecosystem Services, Area of Sustainability, EURECAT, Technological Centre of CataloniaCoastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Christian-Albrechts-University KielAbstract Mediterranean coastal wetlands account for important biodiversity and ecosystem services. But climate-change induced sea-level rise poses a critical risk to their survival. Here, we assess these risks for Mediterranean coastal marshes, one key type of Mediterranean coastal wetlands, and identify main drivers for future coastal marsh change for the Mediterranean and comparable coastlines. We apply an integrated modelling approach that accounts for future sea-level rise, sediment accretion, coastal management and marsh inland migration processes. Depending on climate mitigation scenarios, widespread coastal marsh loss is projected, ranging from 8% to 92% of current extents. For Egypt, France, and Algeria, we predict (near) total loss of coastal marshes by 2100 for current coastal management and sediment supply scenarios. Overall, losses could at least be halved if additional inland migration space were created, e.g. through passive or active habitat restoration. Bold climate mitigation and local adaptation are needed to preserve existing coastal marshes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02099-2 |
| spellingShingle | Mark Schuerch Joshua Kiesel Olivier Boutron Anis Guelmami Claudia Wolff Wolfgang Cramer Nuno Caiola Carles Ibáñez Athanasios T. Vafeidis Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| title_full | Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| title_short | Large-scale loss of Mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| title_sort | large scale loss of mediterranean coastal marshes under rising sea levels by 2100 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02099-2 |
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