Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach
This study conducts a scenario analysis of global net-zero emissions by 2050 using two macroeconomic models with distinct theoretical foundations: E3ME (non-equilibrium) and GEM-E3 (equilibrium). The analysis quantifies the economic impacts of increasing climate policy ambition to meet the global 1....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Energy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/adef5e |
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| author | Aron Denes Hartvig Marton Simo Dora Fazekas Panagiotis Fragkos Kostas Fragkiadakis Dimitris Fragkiadakis Zoi Vrontisi |
| author_facet | Aron Denes Hartvig Marton Simo Dora Fazekas Panagiotis Fragkos Kostas Fragkiadakis Dimitris Fragkiadakis Zoi Vrontisi |
| author_sort | Aron Denes Hartvig |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study conducts a scenario analysis of global net-zero emissions by 2050 using two macroeconomic models with distinct theoretical foundations: E3ME (non-equilibrium) and GEM-E3 (equilibrium). The analysis quantifies the economic impacts of increasing climate policy ambition to meet the global 1.5 °C warming target and highlights key differences between the models in projecting GDP, employment, and sectoral transitions. The findings indicate that while economic outcomes of decarbonization may vary depending on the model paradigm used, the uncertainties in climate damage projections far exceed those of mitigation costs. By comparing the economic impacts of mitigation with potential losses from climate damages, the study finds that the costs of mitigation are lower and more predictable than the potential climate damage costs. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C yields net economic gains in almost all countries examined, while a 3 °C trajectory could trigger widespread losses. The study reinforces the need for decisive and immediate global mitigation efforts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e33afaae04b4ae4aa6aa34214a5ba46 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2753-3751 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Energy |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e33afaae04b4ae4aa6aa34214a5ba462025-08-20T03:09:01ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Energy2753-37512025-01-012303500510.1088/2753-3751/adef5eComparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approachAron Denes Hartvig0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5827-7174Marton Simo1Dora Fazekas2Panagiotis Fragkos3Kostas Fragkiadakis4Dimitris Fragkiadakis5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5414-9570Zoi Vrontisi6Cambridge Econometrics , Covent Garden, Cambridge CB1 2HT, United Kingdom; Corvinus University of Budapest , Fővám square 8, Budapest 1093, Hungary; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Schloßpl. 1, 2361 Laxenburg, AustriaCambridge Econometrics , Covent Garden, Cambridge CB1 2HT, United KingdomCambridge Econometrics , Covent Garden, Cambridge CB1 2HT, United KingdomE3Modelling S.A , Panormou, 70-72, Athens, PO 11523, GreeceE3Modelling S.A , Panormou, 70-72, Athens, PO 11523, GreeceE3Modelling S.A , Panormou, 70-72, Athens, PO 11523, GreeceE3Modelling S.A , Panormou, 70-72, Athens, PO 11523, GreeceThis study conducts a scenario analysis of global net-zero emissions by 2050 using two macroeconomic models with distinct theoretical foundations: E3ME (non-equilibrium) and GEM-E3 (equilibrium). The analysis quantifies the economic impacts of increasing climate policy ambition to meet the global 1.5 °C warming target and highlights key differences between the models in projecting GDP, employment, and sectoral transitions. The findings indicate that while economic outcomes of decarbonization may vary depending on the model paradigm used, the uncertainties in climate damage projections far exceed those of mitigation costs. By comparing the economic impacts of mitigation with potential losses from climate damages, the study finds that the costs of mitigation are lower and more predictable than the potential climate damage costs. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C yields net economic gains in almost all countries examined, while a 3 °C trajectory could trigger widespread losses. The study reinforces the need for decisive and immediate global mitigation efforts.https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/adef5escenario analysiseconomic modelsclimate damagesmacroeconomic effectsnet zero pathway |
| spellingShingle | Aron Denes Hartvig Marton Simo Dora Fazekas Panagiotis Fragkos Kostas Fragkiadakis Dimitris Fragkiadakis Zoi Vrontisi Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach Environmental Research: Energy scenario analysis economic models climate damages macroeconomic effects net zero pathway |
| title | Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach |
| title_full | Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach |
| title_fullStr | Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach |
| title_short | Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach |
| title_sort | comparing economic impacts of net zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual model approach |
| topic | scenario analysis economic models climate damages macroeconomic effects net zero pathway |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/adef5e |
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