Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India
With global temperatures steadily rising, understanding the impacts of warming on regional climates has become crucial, particularly for countries like India, where climate sensitivity has significant socio-economic implications. This study assesses the trends and spatial distribution of summer days...
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Earth |
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| author | Deepak Kumar Prajapat Mahender Choudhary Ram Avtar Saurabh Singh Saleh Alsulamy Ali Kharrazi |
| author_facet | Deepak Kumar Prajapat Mahender Choudhary Ram Avtar Saurabh Singh Saleh Alsulamy Ali Kharrazi |
| author_sort | Deepak Kumar Prajapat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With global temperatures steadily rising, understanding the impacts of warming on regional climates has become crucial, particularly for countries like India, where climate sensitivity has significant socio-economic implications. This study assesses the trends and spatial distribution of summer days across India under different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C, 3 °C, 3.5 °C, 4 °C, 4.5 °C, and 5 °C) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach, combining five best-performing CORDEX-SA experiments, was utilized to analyze projected summer days in India. Non-parametric trend analysis techniques—such as the Mann–Kendall test, Modified Mann–Kendall, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Pettitt test—were used to investigate temporal patterns, and Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) was applied for uncertainty analysis to ensure robust projections. The results indicate that summer days are expected to increase significantly across India under both RCP scenarios, with the highest increases projected for northeastern regions and north-central regions of India. This study underscores the pressing need for region-specific adaptation strategies to manage extended periods of extreme temperatures and safeguard public health, agriculture, and socio-economic stability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e09e9d069df4ce3b118c629cd89d443 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2673-4834 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Earth |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e09e9d069df4ce3b118c629cd89d4432025-08-20T03:24:32ZengMDPI AGEarth2673-48342025-05-01623910.3390/earth6020039Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in IndiaDeepak Kumar Prajapat0Mahender Choudhary1Ram Avtar2Saurabh Singh3Saleh Alsulamy4Ali Kharrazi5Department of Civil Engineering, Poornima University, Jaipur 303905, IndiaCivil Engineering Department, Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur 302017, IndiaFaculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0808, JapanDepartment of Civil Engineering, Poornima University, Jaipur 303905, IndiaArchitecture and Planning Department, College of Engineering, King Khalid University, Abha 61421, Saudi ArabiaAdvanced Systems Analysis Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaWith global temperatures steadily rising, understanding the impacts of warming on regional climates has become crucial, particularly for countries like India, where climate sensitivity has significant socio-economic implications. This study assesses the trends and spatial distribution of summer days across India under different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C, 3 °C, 3.5 °C, 4 °C, 4.5 °C, and 5 °C) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach, combining five best-performing CORDEX-SA experiments, was utilized to analyze projected summer days in India. Non-parametric trend analysis techniques—such as the Mann–Kendall test, Modified Mann–Kendall, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Pettitt test—were used to investigate temporal patterns, and Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) was applied for uncertainty analysis to ensure robust projections. The results indicate that summer days are expected to increase significantly across India under both RCP scenarios, with the highest increases projected for northeastern regions and north-central regions of India. This study underscores the pressing need for region-specific adaptation strategies to manage extended periods of extreme temperatures and safeguard public health, agriculture, and socio-economic stability.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4834/6/2/39global warmingsummer daysIndiaRCP4.5RCP8.5climate change |
| spellingShingle | Deepak Kumar Prajapat Mahender Choudhary Ram Avtar Saurabh Singh Saleh Alsulamy Ali Kharrazi Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India Earth global warming summer days India RCP4.5 RCP8.5 climate change |
| title | Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India |
| title_full | Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India |
| title_fullStr | Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India |
| title_short | Transformative Spatio-Temporal Insights into Indian Summer Days for Advancing Climate Resilience and Regional Adaptation in India |
| title_sort | transformative spatio temporal insights into indian summer days for advancing climate resilience and regional adaptation in india |
| topic | global warming summer days India RCP4.5 RCP8.5 climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4834/6/2/39 |
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