An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam
Storm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited....
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/12/2141 |
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| author | Xiaoting Wang Ali Dastgheib Johan Reyns Fan Li Trang Minh Duong Weiguo Zhang Qinke Sun Roshanka Ranasinghe |
| author_facet | Xiaoting Wang Ali Dastgheib Johan Reyns Fan Li Trang Minh Duong Weiguo Zhang Qinke Sun Roshanka Ranasinghe |
| author_sort | Xiaoting Wang |
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| description | Storm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited. Vung Tau beach, characterized by its low terrain and rapid tourism-driven economic growth, was selected as a typical study area to quantify the shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, and to identify the existence of tipping points by investigating the projected annual change in shoreline retreat (m/yr). This study employs the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model, a physics-based tool specifically designed for long-term coastline change assessments. The results indicate that shoreline retreat accelerates over time, particularly after a tipping point is reached around 2050 in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the median retreat distance is projected to increase from 19 m in 2050 to 89 m by 2100, nearly a fourfold rise. In comparison, the retreat distances are smaller under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but the same accelerating trend is observed beyond 2050. These findings highlight the growing risks associated with sea-level rise, especially the rapid increase in exceedance probabilities for retreat distances by the end of the century. By 2100, the probability of losing the entire beach at Vung Tau is projected to be 22% under SSP5-8.5. The approach of identifying tipping points based on the PCR model presented here can be applied to other sandy coastal regions, providing critical references for timely planning and the implementation of adaptation measures. |
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| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e037f3069ea4b3aadc3709986a01b942025-08-20T02:00:38ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122024-11-011212214110.3390/jmse12122141An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, VietnamXiaoting Wang0Ali Dastgheib1Johan Reyns2Fan Li3Trang Minh Duong4Weiguo Zhang5Qinke Sun6Roshanka Ranasinghe7College of History, Culture and Tourism, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, ChinaDepartment of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The NetherlandsDepartment of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The NetherlandsCollege of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, ChinaDepartment of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The NetherlandsState Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, ChinaDepartment of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The NetherlandsDepartment of Coastal and Urban Risk & Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2601 DA Delft, The NetherlandsStorm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited. Vung Tau beach, characterized by its low terrain and rapid tourism-driven economic growth, was selected as a typical study area to quantify the shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, and to identify the existence of tipping points by investigating the projected annual change in shoreline retreat (m/yr). This study employs the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model, a physics-based tool specifically designed for long-term coastline change assessments. The results indicate that shoreline retreat accelerates over time, particularly after a tipping point is reached around 2050 in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the median retreat distance is projected to increase from 19 m in 2050 to 89 m by 2100, nearly a fourfold rise. In comparison, the retreat distances are smaller under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but the same accelerating trend is observed beyond 2050. These findings highlight the growing risks associated with sea-level rise, especially the rapid increase in exceedance probabilities for retreat distances by the end of the century. By 2100, the probability of losing the entire beach at Vung Tau is projected to be 22% under SSP5-8.5. The approach of identifying tipping points based on the PCR model presented here can be applied to other sandy coastal regions, providing critical references for timely planning and the implementation of adaptation measures.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/12/2141shoreline retreatprobabilistic modelingtipping point identificationsandy beachclimate changeVung Tau beach |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoting Wang Ali Dastgheib Johan Reyns Fan Li Trang Minh Duong Weiguo Zhang Qinke Sun Roshanka Ranasinghe An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam Journal of Marine Science and Engineering shoreline retreat probabilistic modeling tipping point identification sandy beach climate change Vung Tau beach |
| title | An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam |
| title_full | An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam |
| title_fullStr | An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam |
| title_short | An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat: A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam |
| title_sort | assessment of the tipping point behavior for shoreline retreat a pcr model application at vung tau beach vietnam |
| topic | shoreline retreat probabilistic modeling tipping point identification sandy beach climate change Vung Tau beach |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/12/2141 |
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