Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub>
Evidence from megacity registry data regarding the independent association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, after accounting for Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), remains scarce. In this study, we collected 308,116 CVD mortality cases in Sh...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Qi Li Shizhen Li Ting Zhai Shan Jin Chunfang Wang Bo Fang Tian Xia |
| author_facet | Qi Li Shizhen Li Ting Zhai Shan Jin Chunfang Wang Bo Fang Tian Xia |
| author_sort | Qi Li |
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| description | Evidence from megacity registry data regarding the independent association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, after accounting for Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), remains scarce. In this study, we collected 308,116 CVD mortality cases in Shanghai from 2015 to 2020. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was utilized. The daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration was transformed using a natural spline (ns) function and integrated into the model for adjustment. The DLNM analysis revealed that the exposure–response curve between daily temperature and CVD mortality approximated an inverted “J” shape, consistent for both women and men. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for total CVD mortality was 25 °C, with an MMT of 26 °C for females and 24 °C for males. The highest relative risk (RR) of CVD mortality was 2.424 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.035, 2.887] at the lowest temperature of −6.1 °C, with 2.244 (95% CI: 1.787, 2.818) for female and 2.642 (95% CI: 2.100, 3.326) for male. High temperatures exert acute and short-term effects, with the peak risk occurring on the day of exposure. In contrast, the risk from low temperature peaks on day 3 of the lag time and subsequently declines until days 16–21. This study offers evidence-based support for the prevention of temperature-induced CVD mortality. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-9df979e1568e452eaa3ae1384aba36e82025-08-20T02:44:47ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-01-0116211910.3390/atmos16020119Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub>Qi Li0Shizhen Li1Ting Zhai2Shan Jin3Chunfang Wang4Bo Fang5Tian Xia6Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Vital Statistics, Institute of Health Information, Shanghai 200336, ChinaNational Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases at Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USAShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Vital Statistics, Institute of Health Information, Shanghai 200336, ChinaShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Vital Statistics, Institute of Health Information, Shanghai 200336, ChinaShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Vital Statistics, Institute of Health Information, Shanghai 200336, ChinaShanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Vital Statistics, Institute of Health Information, Shanghai 200336, ChinaEvidence from megacity registry data regarding the independent association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, after accounting for Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), remains scarce. In this study, we collected 308,116 CVD mortality cases in Shanghai from 2015 to 2020. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was utilized. The daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration was transformed using a natural spline (ns) function and integrated into the model for adjustment. The DLNM analysis revealed that the exposure–response curve between daily temperature and CVD mortality approximated an inverted “J” shape, consistent for both women and men. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for total CVD mortality was 25 °C, with an MMT of 26 °C for females and 24 °C for males. The highest relative risk (RR) of CVD mortality was 2.424 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.035, 2.887] at the lowest temperature of −6.1 °C, with 2.244 (95% CI: 1.787, 2.818) for female and 2.642 (95% CI: 2.100, 3.326) for male. High temperatures exert acute and short-term effects, with the peak risk occurring on the day of exposure. In contrast, the risk from low temperature peaks on day 3 of the lag time and subsequently declines until days 16–21. This study offers evidence-based support for the prevention of temperature-induced CVD mortality.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/119climate changeambient temperaturecardiovascular diseasemortality |
| spellingShingle | Qi Li Shizhen Li Ting Zhai Shan Jin Chunfang Wang Bo Fang Tian Xia Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> Atmosphere climate change ambient temperature cardiovascular disease mortality |
| title | Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> |
| title_full | Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> |
| title_fullStr | Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> |
| title_full_unstemmed | Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> |
| title_short | Association of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality and Ambient Temperature Variation in Shanghai, China: Beyond Air Quality Index PM<sub>2.5</sub> |
| title_sort | association of cardiovascular disease mortality and ambient temperature variation in shanghai china beyond air quality index pm sub 2 5 sub |
| topic | climate change ambient temperature cardiovascular disease mortality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/2/119 |
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