Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations
In 1996–1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determinin...
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Kazan Federal University
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Учёные записки Казанского университета: Серия Естественные науки |
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| author | Kh.A. Arslanov V.A. Dergachev F.E. Maksimov J.V. Kudryavtsev |
| author_facet | Kh.A. Arslanov V.A. Dergachev F.E. Maksimov J.V. Kudryavtsev |
| author_sort | Kh.A. Arslanov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In 1996–1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determining the radiocarbon age arising due to the changes in the concentration of atmospheric radiocarbon. To allow for this error and make the chronology more precise and reliable, here we used C. Bronk Ramsey's model based on comparing the radiocarbon chronology of the surveyed section with the calibration curve chronology. Thanks to this model, we were able to calculate the calibrated (modeled) age span of the entire series of radiocarbon dates that had been previously obtained by us for samples taken from the thickest (6.4–6.7 m) sediment layers of the raised bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe, Shirinsky Mokh, and Sambal'skoe in Northwestern Russia. The deviations of the average annual temperature from its present value (∆T, ?C), which had been represented in our earlier works as a graph, were converted into digital values and employed to define the modeled age that is most approximate to the calendar one and the corresponding values of ∆T for all the dated samples. The ∆T values were reconstructed for a period of 200–11000 cal yr. The modeled age of the cooling and warming stages was compared with the age of the stages of low and high solar activity established by counting the number of sunspots and by determining the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes (14C in tree rings of known age and 10Be in polar glaciers). It was revealed that, within the error in the measured values of age and ∆T, the short-term changes in the average annual temperature occurred simultaneously at three sites of the bog sediments under consideration. The identified changes in the average annual temperature turned out to be synchronous with similar temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1000 years, as well as with the chronologies developed from the GISP 2 polar ice cores and the mountain glacier advances. In general, the comparison of the modeled age of the cooling stages with the corresponding grand minima of solar activity demonstrates the synchronicity of the periods of cooling and low solar activity during the Holocene. It was concluded that short-term climate change depends mainly on variations in solar activity, which is important for predicting and modeling climate shifts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9c252ff49b184eeebe7dc974aaf6a6cc |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2542-064X 2500-218X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Kazan Federal University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Учёные записки Казанского университета: Серия Естественные науки |
| spelling | doaj-art-9c252ff49b184eeebe7dc974aaf6a6cc2025-08-20T02:56:12ZengKazan Federal UniversityУчёные записки Казанского университета: Серия Естественные науки2542-064X2500-218X2022-03-01164113516510.26907/2542-064X.2022.1.135-165Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variationsKh.A. Arslanov0V.A. Dergachev1F.E. Maksimov2J.V. Kudryavtsev3St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, 199034 RussiaIoffe Institute of Physics and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, 194021 RussiaSt. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, 199034 RussiaIoffe Institute of Physics and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, 194021 RussiaIn 1996–1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determining the radiocarbon age arising due to the changes in the concentration of atmospheric radiocarbon. To allow for this error and make the chronology more precise and reliable, here we used C. Bronk Ramsey's model based on comparing the radiocarbon chronology of the surveyed section with the calibration curve chronology. Thanks to this model, we were able to calculate the calibrated (modeled) age span of the entire series of radiocarbon dates that had been previously obtained by us for samples taken from the thickest (6.4–6.7 m) sediment layers of the raised bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe, Shirinsky Mokh, and Sambal'skoe in Northwestern Russia. The deviations of the average annual temperature from its present value (∆T, ?C), which had been represented in our earlier works as a graph, were converted into digital values and employed to define the modeled age that is most approximate to the calendar one and the corresponding values of ∆T for all the dated samples. The ∆T values were reconstructed for a period of 200–11000 cal yr. The modeled age of the cooling and warming stages was compared with the age of the stages of low and high solar activity established by counting the number of sunspots and by determining the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes (14C in tree rings of known age and 10Be in polar glaciers). It was revealed that, within the error in the measured values of age and ∆T, the short-term changes in the average annual temperature occurred simultaneously at three sites of the bog sediments under consideration. The identified changes in the average annual temperature turned out to be synchronous with similar temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1000 years, as well as with the chronologies developed from the GISP 2 polar ice cores and the mountain glacier advances. In general, the comparison of the modeled age of the cooling stages with the corresponding grand minima of solar activity demonstrates the synchronicity of the periods of cooling and low solar activity during the Holocene. It was concluded that short-term climate change depends mainly on variations in solar activity, which is important for predicting and modeling climate shifts.https://kpfu.ru/uz-eng-ns-2022-1-8.htmlbog sedimentsradiocarbon datingage correction by modelingpaleoclimatic reconstructioncosmogenic isotopescorrelation of climate change and solar activity |
| spellingShingle | Kh.A. Arslanov V.A. Dergachev F.E. Maksimov J.V. Kudryavtsev Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations Учёные записки Казанского университета: Серия Естественные науки bog sediments radiocarbon dating age correction by modeling paleoclimatic reconstruction cosmogenic isotopes correlation of climate change and solar activity |
| title | Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| title_full | Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| title_fullStr | Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| title_short | Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| title_sort | chronology of the short term climate change during the holocene in northwestern russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations |
| topic | bog sediments radiocarbon dating age correction by modeling paleoclimatic reconstruction cosmogenic isotopes correlation of climate change and solar activity |
| url | https://kpfu.ru/uz-eng-ns-2022-1-8.html |
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