Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war

This study investigates the trilateral relationship among the stock, oil, and foreign exchange markets across nine ASEAN countries from January 2019 to February 2023. The sample is divided into three periods: before and after the announcement of Covid-19 and the period of the Russia - Ukraine war. T...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nhung Thi Hong Vu, Phuc Thien Nguyen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE 2025-01-01
Series:Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science - Economics and Business Administration
Subjects:
Online Access:https://journalofscience.ou.edu.vn/index.php/econ-en/article/view/3688
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849309963663441920
author Nhung Thi Hong Vu
Phuc Thien Nguyen
author_facet Nhung Thi Hong Vu
Phuc Thien Nguyen
author_sort Nhung Thi Hong Vu
collection DOAJ
description This study investigates the trilateral relationship among the stock, oil, and foreign exchange markets across nine ASEAN countries from January 2019 to February 2023. The sample is divided into three periods: before and after the announcement of Covid-19 and the period of the Russia - Ukraine war. The analysis is conducted through various techniques, including Granger causality testing, impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition. The results are consistent with various panel analysis techniques. The findings show the independence of these three variables before the pandemic and during the Russia - Ukraine war. Yet after the pandemic, shocks in oil and foreign exchange markets significantly cause stock market volatility. Additionally, oil price fluctuation appears to have a more profound impact on stock returns than changes in exchange rates. These results suggest diversification opportunities for investors to neighbouring areas beyond China, the study of oil price risk management before making investments in oil-related businesses, and the need for policymakers to monitor exchange rates to mitigate the effect on the stock market.
format Article
id doaj-art-9bf0990c8d0840eeab78f0ef779dc065
institution Kabale University
issn 2734-9314
2734-9586
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE
record_format Article
series Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science - Economics and Business Administration
spelling doaj-art-9bf0990c8d0840eeab78f0ef779dc0652025-08-20T03:53:56ZengHO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCEHo Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science - Economics and Business Administration2734-93142734-95862025-01-01153637610.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.15.3.3688.20252358Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine warNhung Thi Hong Vu0Phuc Thien Nguyen1Eastern International University, Binh DuongEastern International University, Binh DuongThis study investigates the trilateral relationship among the stock, oil, and foreign exchange markets across nine ASEAN countries from January 2019 to February 2023. The sample is divided into three periods: before and after the announcement of Covid-19 and the period of the Russia - Ukraine war. The analysis is conducted through various techniques, including Granger causality testing, impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition. The results are consistent with various panel analysis techniques. The findings show the independence of these three variables before the pandemic and during the Russia - Ukraine war. Yet after the pandemic, shocks in oil and foreign exchange markets significantly cause stock market volatility. Additionally, oil price fluctuation appears to have a more profound impact on stock returns than changes in exchange rates. These results suggest diversification opportunities for investors to neighbouring areas beyond China, the study of oil price risk management before making investments in oil-related businesses, and the need for policymakers to monitor exchange rates to mitigate the effect on the stock market.https://journalofscience.ou.edu.vn/index.php/econ-en/article/view/3688asean regioncovid-19 pandemicoil price volatilityrussia - ukraine war
spellingShingle Nhung Thi Hong Vu
Phuc Thien Nguyen
Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science - Economics and Business Administration
asean region
covid-19 pandemic
oil price volatility
russia - ukraine war
title Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
title_full Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
title_fullStr Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
title_full_unstemmed Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
title_short Oil, stock, and foreign exchange markets in ASEAN countries: Evidence in Covid-19 pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war
title_sort oil stock and foreign exchange markets in asean countries evidence in covid 19 pandemic and russia ukraine war
topic asean region
covid-19 pandemic
oil price volatility
russia - ukraine war
url https://journalofscience.ou.edu.vn/index.php/econ-en/article/view/3688
work_keys_str_mv AT nhungthihongvu oilstockandforeignexchangemarketsinaseancountriesevidenceincovid19pandemicandrussiaukrainewar
AT phucthiennguyen oilstockandforeignexchangemarketsinaseancountriesevidenceincovid19pandemicandrussiaukrainewar