The Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox in ENSO Prediction: Role of ENSO Growth Rate and Period
Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneous predictability and homogeneous predictability for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Previous studies showed that a larger heterogeneous predictability than homogeneous predictability, referred as the signal‐to‐nois...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097965 |
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| Summary: | Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneous predictability and homogeneous predictability for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Previous studies showed that a larger heterogeneous predictability than homogeneous predictability, referred as the signal‐to‐noise paradox, is caused by a higher persistence in the observations than in the model. By using the recharge oscillator model, it is found analytically and numerically that both ENSO growth rate and period contribute to this paradox. A larger ENSO growth rate in the observation can lead to a higher persistence and heterogeneous predictability. However, a larger ENSO growth rate associated with a shortened ENSO period can also lead to this paradox although the persistence of the observation is lower than forecast model. Finally, we apply it to explain the paradox after 1960 is caused by a larger ENSO growth rate and a shortened ENSO period. |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |