Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation

This article explores the use of logistic-shaped diffusion curves (S-Curves) to predict the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. The research question here is whether forecasts using logistic curves are stable, that is, do they predict consistently over time with different amounts of data? Using data...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: David Levinson
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Findings Press 2020-07-01
Series:Findings
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13709
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850220060923133952
author David Levinson
author_facet David Levinson
author_sort David Levinson
collection DOAJ
description This article explores the use of logistic-shaped diffusion curves (S-Curves) to predict the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. The research question here is whether forecasts using logistic curves are stable, that is, do they predict consistently over time with different amounts of data? Using data from the Keeling Curve, we find that the best-fit maximum atmospheric CO2 predicted varies significantly by model year when estimating models limited to data available until that point in time. More recently estimated models are more consistent, all indicate that CO2 accumulation will continue in the absence of an external shock to the system.
format Article
id doaj-art-9bc89166e2854e13aeddd24af4408f2e
institution OA Journals
issn 2652-8800
language English
publishDate 2020-07-01
publisher Findings Press
record_format Article
series Findings
spelling doaj-art-9bc89166e2854e13aeddd24af4408f2e2025-08-20T02:07:12ZengFindings PressFindings2652-88002020-07-0110.32866/001c.13709Logistic Curve Models of CO2 AccumulationDavid LevinsonThis article explores the use of logistic-shaped diffusion curves (S-Curves) to predict the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. The research question here is whether forecasts using logistic curves are stable, that is, do they predict consistently over time with different amounts of data? Using data from the Keeling Curve, we find that the best-fit maximum atmospheric CO2 predicted varies significantly by model year when estimating models limited to data available until that point in time. More recently estimated models are more consistent, all indicate that CO2 accumulation will continue in the absence of an external shock to the system.https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13709
spellingShingle David Levinson
Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
Findings
title Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
title_full Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
title_fullStr Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
title_full_unstemmed Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
title_short Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation
title_sort logistic curve models of co2 accumulation
url https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13709
work_keys_str_mv AT davidlevinson logisticcurvemodelsofco2accumulation