Development, verification, and comparison of a risk stratification model to identify potential population benefiting from chemotherapy in non-metastatic male breast cancer

Abstract To establish a prognostic stratification nomogram for non-metastatic male breast cancer to determine which patients can benefit from chemotherapy. A population-based study was conducted using data collected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. Cox proportional haza...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mingkun Zhang, Qing Yao, Yuan Qin, Niuniu Hou, Xueyuan Tang, Juliang Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08440-1
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Summary:Abstract To establish a prognostic stratification nomogram for non-metastatic male breast cancer to determine which patients can benefit from chemotherapy. A population-based study was conducted using data collected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. Cox proportional hazards analysis identified significant prognostic factors for survival. A prognostic stratification model was developed using R software. Propensity score matching was implemented to balance characteristics between the chemotherapy cohort and the non-chemotherapy cohort. The multivariate analyses indicated that age, race, grade, surgery, primary tumor, marital status, T stage, and N stage were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in non-metastatic metastatic MBC patients who did not receive chemotherapy (all P < 0.05). The C-index was 0.786 (95% CI 0.662–0.870) in the training cohort and 0.763 (95% CI 0.517–0.852) in the validation cohort. The nomogram effectively discriminated between low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups concerning OS (P < 0.0001). The current study developed the first prognostic stratification nomogram for non-metastatic MBC and identified that patients in the moderate-risk and high-risk groups are more likely to benefit from chemotherapy.
ISSN:2045-2322