Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia

Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional <i>Coffea arabica</i> cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounde...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia, William Andres Cardona, Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco, Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo, Jarrod Kath, Eric Rahn, Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy, Mario Porcel
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-08-01
Series:Proceedings
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/109/1/42
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850085166235516928
author Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia
William Andres Cardona
Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco
Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo
Jarrod Kath
Eric Rahn
Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
Mario Porcel
author_facet Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia
William Andres Cardona
Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco
Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo
Jarrod Kath
Eric Rahn
Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
Mario Porcel
author_sort Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia
collection DOAJ
description Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional <i>Coffea arabica</i> cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation has led to the consideration of cultivating <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary. Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios, potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario with a 2 °C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta.
format Article
id doaj-art-9a593ec4b1f84104b00685db430fa06c
institution DOAJ
issn 2504-3900
language English
publishDate 2024-08-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Proceedings
spelling doaj-art-9a593ec4b1f84104b00685db430fa06c2025-08-20T02:43:47ZengMDPI AGProceedings2504-39002024-08-0110914210.3390/ICC2024-18168Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in ColombiaDiego Alejandro Salinas Velandia0William Andres Cardona1Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco2Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo3Jarrod Kath4Eric Rahn5Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy6Mario Porcel7Centro de Investigación Tibaitatá, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía a Mosquera, Bogotá 250047, Cundinamarca, ColombiaCentro de Investigación Tibaitatá, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía a Mosquera, Bogotá 250047, Cundinamarca, ColombiaCentro de Investigación La Libertad, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía Villavicencio-Puerto López, Villavicencio 500008, Meta, ColombiaCentro de Investigación Tibaitatá, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía a Mosquera, Bogotá 250047, Cundinamarca, ColombiaCenter for Applied Climate Sciences (CACS), School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, QLD 4350, AustraliaInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali 763537, Valle del Cauca, ColombiaCenter for Applied Climate Sciences (CACS), School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, QLD 4350, AustraliaCentro de Investigación La Libertad, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía Villavicencio-Puerto López, Villavicencio 500008, Meta, ColombiaColombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional <i>Coffea arabica</i> cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation has led to the consideration of cultivating <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary. Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios, potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario with a 2 °C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta.https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/109/1/42biogeographygeospatial analysiscrop adaptationclimate resilienceAndean region
spellingShingle Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia
William Andres Cardona
Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco
Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo
Jarrod Kath
Eric Rahn
Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
Mario Porcel
Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
Proceedings
biogeography
geospatial analysis
crop adaptation
climate resilience
Andean region
title Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
title_full Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
title_fullStr Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
title_short Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for <i>Coffea canephora</i> var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia
title_sort navigating climate challenges strategic spatial modelling as a proposal to prepare for i coffea canephora i var robusta plantations in colombia
topic biogeography
geospatial analysis
crop adaptation
climate resilience
Andean region
url https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/109/1/42
work_keys_str_mv AT diegoalejandrosalinasvelandia navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT williamandrescardona navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT carloseduardogonzalezorozco navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT gustavoalfonsoaraujocarrillo navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT jarrodkath navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT ericrahn navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT vivekanandamittahallibyrareddy navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia
AT marioporcel navigatingclimatechallengesstrategicspatialmodellingasaproposaltoprepareforicoffeacanephoraivarrobustaplantationsincolombia