The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence

This paper explores the idea that developments in Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) systems degrade nuclear security. The United States is developing such weapons for niche conventional use on the surface, but the line between tactical and strategic weapons is becoming blurred. What is more,...

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Main Author: P. Rautenbach
Format: Article
Language:Russian
Published: MGIMO University Press 2021-03-01
Series:Международная аналитика
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/290
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author P. Rautenbach
author_facet P. Rautenbach
author_sort P. Rautenbach
collection DOAJ
description This paper explores the idea that developments in Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) systems degrade nuclear security. The United States is developing such weapons for niche conventional use on the surface, but the line between tactical and strategic weapons is becoming blurred. What is more, while there have been discussions in Congress surrounding the problem of missile ambiguity, there is a multitude of other problems, with the largest being that CPGS weapons inherently degrade nuclear security. By looking at the behavior of critical states and actors involved in the emergence of CPGS weapons and combining this with pre-existing literature and insight on similar topics within international relations, we then can conduct a thorough investigation on the impact of these CPGA systems. When compared to nuclear missiles, the increasing usability of these weapons is inherently dangerous, as it increases both the likelihood of their use and the likelihood of a first strike against another state’s nuclear deterrent. Traditionally, conducting a first strike has been all but impossible because it entailed using nuclear weapons, which come with ethical and environmental consequences. If nuclear weapons can be replaced or substituted with CPGS weapons, then a first strike becomes an actual possibility. Hence, as a result, the nuclear doctrine is changing to reflect this conventional danger and has led to a lower threshold for nuclear use. This fact then demonstrates clear signs that CPGS technology degrades nuclear security and thus increases the chance of nuclear use.
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spelling doaj-art-99c8f0718d894c3ab375a04c2737ff912025-08-20T02:53:39ZrusMGIMO University PressМеждународная аналитика2587-84762541-96332021-03-01114567110.46272/2587-8476-2020-11-4-56-71290The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for DeterrenceP. Rautenbach0London School of Economics and Political ScienseThis paper explores the idea that developments in Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) systems degrade nuclear security. The United States is developing such weapons for niche conventional use on the surface, but the line between tactical and strategic weapons is becoming blurred. What is more, while there have been discussions in Congress surrounding the problem of missile ambiguity, there is a multitude of other problems, with the largest being that CPGS weapons inherently degrade nuclear security. By looking at the behavior of critical states and actors involved in the emergence of CPGS weapons and combining this with pre-existing literature and insight on similar topics within international relations, we then can conduct a thorough investigation on the impact of these CPGA systems. When compared to nuclear missiles, the increasing usability of these weapons is inherently dangerous, as it increases both the likelihood of their use and the likelihood of a first strike against another state’s nuclear deterrent. Traditionally, conducting a first strike has been all but impossible because it entailed using nuclear weapons, which come with ethical and environmental consequences. If nuclear weapons can be replaced or substituted with CPGS weapons, then a first strike becomes an actual possibility. Hence, as a result, the nuclear doctrine is changing to reflect this conventional danger and has led to a lower threshold for nuclear use. This fact then demonstrates clear signs that CPGS technology degrades nuclear security and thus increases the chance of nuclear use.https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/290bsudeterrencenuclear weaponsfirst strikeconventional weaponsemerging technologies
spellingShingle P. Rautenbach
The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
Международная аналитика
bsu
deterrence
nuclear weapons
first strike
conventional weapons
emerging technologies
title The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
title_full The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
title_fullStr The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
title_full_unstemmed The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
title_short The Threat of Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Security: A New Reality for Deterrence
title_sort threat of conventional weapons to nuclear security a new reality for deterrence
topic bsu
deterrence
nuclear weapons
first strike
conventional weapons
emerging technologies
url https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/290
work_keys_str_mv AT prautenbach thethreatofconventionalweaponstonuclearsecurityanewrealityfordeterrence
AT prautenbach threatofconventionalweaponstonuclearsecurityanewrealityfordeterrence