Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations
ABSTRACT: Maize is a crucial crop for food security and economic resilience, playing a significant role in agri-food systems. However, climate change poses increasing challenges to its cultivation, particularly by affecting water availability and crop water requirements. Climate projections indicate...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-09-01
|
| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425004342 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849233643952668672 |
|---|---|
| author | Shankarappa Sridhara Hemareddy Thimmareddy Mahesh Haroli Santanu Kumar Bal Bappa Das Prakash Kumar Jha P.V.Vara Prasad |
| author_facet | Shankarappa Sridhara Hemareddy Thimmareddy Mahesh Haroli Santanu Kumar Bal Bappa Das Prakash Kumar Jha P.V.Vara Prasad |
| author_sort | Shankarappa Sridhara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT: Maize is a crucial crop for food security and economic resilience, playing a significant role in agri-food systems. However, climate change poses increasing challenges to its cultivation, particularly by affecting water availability and crop water requirements. Climate projections indicate that increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will alter crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and maize water demands. To assess future climate impacts, four CMIP6 models (ACCESS-ESM1–5, CNRM-ESM2–1, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR and MIROC6) were validated against IMD gridded data (1985–2014). Among these, ACCESS-ESM1–5 demonstrated the best performance for Karnataka and was selected for projection studies. Projections suggest that average minimum and maximum temperatures in Karnataka may rise by approximately 2°C and 1.5°C, respectively, in the near future. Using the CROPWAT model, kharif maize water requirements were estimated for various future periods. Results indicate a 3.6 % decrease in ETc and a 9.6 % increase in effective rainfall during near future (2024–2050) compared to baseline (1994–2023) under SSP245 scenario. However, ETc remains relatively stable for the mid-future (2051–2075) and far-future (2076–2100) under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Irrigation requirements are projected to decline by nearly 50 % across all future periods due to increased rainfall, except in the near future under SSP585 scenario, where no change is observed. For vertisols, the irrigation needs remain consistent at two supplemental irrigations across all periods. In contrast, for alfisols, the irrigation frequency currently 5 irrigations is projected to decrease by one in the near and mid-future under SSP245. These findings highlight the need for adaptive water management strategies to sustain maize production in Karnataka under changing climatic conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-99ba50e8581d49fc915549a9a89e6fa2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-99ba50e8581d49fc915549a9a89e6fa22025-08-20T05:04:18ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832025-09-0131810972010.1016/j.agwat.2025.109720Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulationsShankarappa Sridhara0Hemareddy Thimmareddy1Mahesh Haroli2Santanu Kumar Bal3Bappa Das4Prakash Kumar Jha5P.V.Vara Prasad6Centre for Climate Resilient Agriculture & All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Keladi Shivappa Nayaka University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Shivamogga, Karnataka 577204, India; Corresponding author.Centre for Climate Resilient Agriculture & All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Keladi Shivappa Nayaka University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Shivamogga, Karnataka 577204, IndiaCentre for Climate Resilient Agriculture & All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Keladi Shivappa Nayaka University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Shivamogga, Karnataka 577204, IndiaICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, Telangana, IndiaICAR-National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning, Nagpur, Maharashtra 440033, IndiaDepartment of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USADepartment of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USAABSTRACT: Maize is a crucial crop for food security and economic resilience, playing a significant role in agri-food systems. However, climate change poses increasing challenges to its cultivation, particularly by affecting water availability and crop water requirements. Climate projections indicate that increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will alter crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and maize water demands. To assess future climate impacts, four CMIP6 models (ACCESS-ESM1–5, CNRM-ESM2–1, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR and MIROC6) were validated against IMD gridded data (1985–2014). Among these, ACCESS-ESM1–5 demonstrated the best performance for Karnataka and was selected for projection studies. Projections suggest that average minimum and maximum temperatures in Karnataka may rise by approximately 2°C and 1.5°C, respectively, in the near future. Using the CROPWAT model, kharif maize water requirements were estimated for various future periods. Results indicate a 3.6 % decrease in ETc and a 9.6 % increase in effective rainfall during near future (2024–2050) compared to baseline (1994–2023) under SSP245 scenario. However, ETc remains relatively stable for the mid-future (2051–2075) and far-future (2076–2100) under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Irrigation requirements are projected to decline by nearly 50 % across all future periods due to increased rainfall, except in the near future under SSP585 scenario, where no change is observed. For vertisols, the irrigation needs remain consistent at two supplemental irrigations across all periods. In contrast, for alfisols, the irrigation frequency currently 5 irrigations is projected to decrease by one in the near and mid-future under SSP245. These findings highlight the need for adaptive water management strategies to sustain maize production in Karnataka under changing climatic conditions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425004342Climate changeCrop evapotranspirationCMIP6Irrigation requirementIrrigation schedulingMaize |
| spellingShingle | Shankarappa Sridhara Hemareddy Thimmareddy Mahesh Haroli Santanu Kumar Bal Bappa Das Prakash Kumar Jha P.V.Vara Prasad Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations Agricultural Water Management Climate change Crop evapotranspiration CMIP6 Irrigation requirement Irrigation scheduling Maize |
| title | Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations |
| title_full | Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations |
| title_fullStr | Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations |
| title_short | Assessing future maize water demand in Karnataka under CMIP6 climate projections: model evaluation and CROPWAT simulations |
| title_sort | assessing future maize water demand in karnataka under cmip6 climate projections model evaluation and cropwat simulations |
| topic | Climate change Crop evapotranspiration CMIP6 Irrigation requirement Irrigation scheduling Maize |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425004342 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shankarappasridhara assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT hemareddythimmareddy assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT maheshharoli assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT santanukumarbal assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT bappadas assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT prakashkumarjha assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations AT pvvaraprasad assessingfuturemaizewaterdemandinkarnatakaundercmip6climateprojectionsmodelevaluationandcropwatsimulations |