Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach

Sustainable transport plays a key role in the fight against climate change, particularly in developing countries where reliance on conventional vehicles is high. Motorcycles account for the majority of the fleet of motor vehicles in Indonesia and contribute significantly to emissions. In order to a...

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Main Authors: Ahmad Rafi Adnanta, Roni Zakaria Raung, Wahyudi Sutopo, Ihwan Susila
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Andalas 2025-06-01
Series:Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri
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Online Access:https://josi.ft.unand.ac.id/index.php/josi/article/view/76
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author Ahmad Rafi Adnanta
Roni Zakaria Raung
Wahyudi Sutopo
Ihwan Susila
author_facet Ahmad Rafi Adnanta
Roni Zakaria Raung
Wahyudi Sutopo
Ihwan Susila
author_sort Ahmad Rafi Adnanta
collection DOAJ
description Sustainable transport plays a key role in the fight against climate change, particularly in developing countries where reliance on conventional vehicles is high. Motorcycles account for the majority of the fleet of motor vehicles in Indonesia and contribute significantly to emissions. In order to achieve its Paris target of a 29 percent reduction of carbon emissions, the government is encouraging electric cars with various incentives. This study develops a willingness to consider (WTC) model for electric motorcycles in Indonesia based on the powertrain technology transition market agent model (PTTMAM) and utilizes Vensim software to simulate outcomes. The WTC model is built on the assumption that consumers' willingness to consider electric motorcycles is influenced by factors such as costs, marketing, and exposures. The system dynamics model consists of four modules: the conventional motorcycle, the electric motorcycle, the marketing module, and the willingness to consider module. The simulation results show an increasing trend in consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles from 2017-2035, with the WTC value reaching 0.3209 in 2035. While this indicates a positive shift toward greater consumer interest in electric motorcycles, the growth remains modest and slow, reflecting the challenges of widespread adoption. Additionally, this study evaluates three government incentive and subsidy policy scenarios. The scenario results indicate that government subsidies and incentives can increase the consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles in Indonesia, thereby increasing their market share. Among the scenarios, the purchase price subsidy is the most effective, as it directly reduces the financial barrier, encouraging more consumers to make the switch to electric motorcycles.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2088-4842
2442-8795
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher Universitas Andalas
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series Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri
spelling doaj-art-998e1bacfb804fbaa0da589370ca247c2025-08-20T03:27:58ZengUniversitas AndalasJurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri2088-48422442-87952025-06-0124110.25077/josi.v24.n1.p37-62.2025Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics ApproachAhmad Rafi Adnanta0Roni Zakaria Raung1Wahyudi Sutopo2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9795-0560Ihwan Susila3Universitas Sebelas MaretUniversitas Sebelas MaretUniversitas Sebelas MaretUniversitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta Sustainable transport plays a key role in the fight against climate change, particularly in developing countries where reliance on conventional vehicles is high. Motorcycles account for the majority of the fleet of motor vehicles in Indonesia and contribute significantly to emissions. In order to achieve its Paris target of a 29 percent reduction of carbon emissions, the government is encouraging electric cars with various incentives. This study develops a willingness to consider (WTC) model for electric motorcycles in Indonesia based on the powertrain technology transition market agent model (PTTMAM) and utilizes Vensim software to simulate outcomes. The WTC model is built on the assumption that consumers' willingness to consider electric motorcycles is influenced by factors such as costs, marketing, and exposures. The system dynamics model consists of four modules: the conventional motorcycle, the electric motorcycle, the marketing module, and the willingness to consider module. The simulation results show an increasing trend in consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles from 2017-2035, with the WTC value reaching 0.3209 in 2035. While this indicates a positive shift toward greater consumer interest in electric motorcycles, the growth remains modest and slow, reflecting the challenges of widespread adoption. Additionally, this study evaluates three government incentive and subsidy policy scenarios. The scenario results indicate that government subsidies and incentives can increase the consumers’ willingness to consider electric motorcycles in Indonesia, thereby increasing their market share. Among the scenarios, the purchase price subsidy is the most effective, as it directly reduces the financial barrier, encouraging more consumers to make the switch to electric motorcycles. https://josi.ft.unand.ac.id/index.php/josi/article/view/76Technology TransitionElectric MotorcycleWillingness to ConsiderSystem DynamicsSubsidy & Incentive Policy
spellingShingle Ahmad Rafi Adnanta
Roni Zakaria Raung
Wahyudi Sutopo
Ihwan Susila
Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri
Technology Transition
Electric Motorcycle
Willingness to Consider
System Dynamics
Subsidy & Incentive Policy
title Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_fullStr Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full_unstemmed Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_short Modeling Consumer Willingness to Consider Electric Motorcycles in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
title_sort modeling consumer willingness to consider electric motorcycles in indonesia a system dynamics approach
topic Technology Transition
Electric Motorcycle
Willingness to Consider
System Dynamics
Subsidy & Incentive Policy
url https://josi.ft.unand.ac.id/index.php/josi/article/view/76
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