Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover
Abstract Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth’s natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849764593370398720 |
|---|---|
| author | Jean-François Bastin Nicolas Latte Jan Bogaert Claude A. Garcia Fabio Berzaghi Fernando T. Maestre Jens-Christian Svenning Emeline Assede Sabas Barima Timothée Besisa Samuel Bouchoms Thomas W. Crowther Thalès de Haulleville Hugo de Lame Pauline Depoortere Marc Dufrêne Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke Simon Lhoest Gregory Mahy Christian Messier Danilo Mollicone Felana Nantenaina Ramalason Marc Peaucelle Antoine Plumacker Fabien Quétier Olivia Rakotondrasoa Kouagou Raoul Sambieni Ben Sparrow Yegor Tarelkin Yannick Useni Sikuzani Arthur Vander Linden Philippe Lejeune |
| author_facet | Jean-François Bastin Nicolas Latte Jan Bogaert Claude A. Garcia Fabio Berzaghi Fernando T. Maestre Jens-Christian Svenning Emeline Assede Sabas Barima Timothée Besisa Samuel Bouchoms Thomas W. Crowther Thalès de Haulleville Hugo de Lame Pauline Depoortere Marc Dufrêne Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke Simon Lhoest Gregory Mahy Christian Messier Danilo Mollicone Felana Nantenaina Ramalason Marc Peaucelle Antoine Plumacker Fabien Quétier Olivia Rakotondrasoa Kouagou Raoul Sambieni Ben Sparrow Yegor Tarelkin Yannick Useni Sikuzani Arthur Vander Linden Philippe Lejeune |
| author_sort | Jean-François Bastin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth’s natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers’ responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-998a41a314fd4b1d8ad235e69dbd5ea0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-998a41a314fd4b1d8ad235e69dbd5ea02025-08-20T03:05:06ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-0116111010.1038/s41467-025-61520-8Global alternatives of natural vegetation coverJean-François Bastin0Nicolas Latte1Jan Bogaert2Claude A. Garcia3Fabio Berzaghi4Fernando T. Maestre5Jens-Christian Svenning6Emeline Assede7Sabas Barima8Timothée Besisa9Samuel Bouchoms10Thomas W. Crowther11Thalès de Haulleville12Hugo de Lame13Pauline Depoortere14Marc Dufrêne15Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke16Simon Lhoest17Gregory Mahy18Christian Messier19Danilo Mollicone20Felana Nantenaina Ramalason21Marc Peaucelle22Antoine Plumacker23Fabien Quétier24Olivia Rakotondrasoa25Kouagou Raoul Sambieni26Ben Sparrow27Yegor Tarelkin28Yannick Useni Sikuzani29Arthur Vander Linden30Philippe Lejeune31TERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeSchool of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences, Bern University of Applied Sciences, BFH-HAFLWorld Maritime UniversityEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and TechnologyCenter for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), Department of Biology, Aarhus UniversityFaculté d’Agronomie, Université de ParakouUFR Environnement, Université Jean Lorougnon GuédéTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeInstitute of Integrative Biology, ETH ZurichQ-Forestlab, Faculty of Bioscience EngineeringTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeLouis Bolk InstituteTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeInstitut des Sciences de la forêt tempérée (ISFORT), Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)UN-FAO Climate Change OfficeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeINRAE, UMR1391 ISPA, Université de BordeauxTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeRewilding EuropeESSA-Forêts, Université d’AntananarivoTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERN, School of Biological Sciences, The University of AdelaideTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeUnité Ecologie, Restauration Ecologique et Paysage, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université de LubumbashiTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeTERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de LiègeAbstract Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth’s natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers’ responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8 |
| spellingShingle | Jean-François Bastin Nicolas Latte Jan Bogaert Claude A. Garcia Fabio Berzaghi Fernando T. Maestre Jens-Christian Svenning Emeline Assede Sabas Barima Timothée Besisa Samuel Bouchoms Thomas W. Crowther Thalès de Haulleville Hugo de Lame Pauline Depoortere Marc Dufrêne Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke Simon Lhoest Gregory Mahy Christian Messier Danilo Mollicone Felana Nantenaina Ramalason Marc Peaucelle Antoine Plumacker Fabien Quétier Olivia Rakotondrasoa Kouagou Raoul Sambieni Ben Sparrow Yegor Tarelkin Yannick Useni Sikuzani Arthur Vander Linden Philippe Lejeune Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover Nature Communications |
| title | Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| title_full | Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| title_fullStr | Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| title_short | Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| title_sort | global alternatives of natural vegetation cover |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeanfrancoisbastin globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT nicolaslatte globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT janbogaert globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT claudeagarcia globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT fabioberzaghi globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT fernandotmaestre globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT jenschristiansvenning globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT emelineassede globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT sabasbarima globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT timotheebesisa globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT samuelbouchoms globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT thomaswcrowther globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT thalesdehaulleville globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT hugodelame globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT paulinedepoortere globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT marcdufrene globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT annejhoekvandijke globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT simonlhoest globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT gregorymahy globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT christianmessier globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT danilomollicone globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT felananantenainaramalason globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT marcpeaucelle globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT antoineplumacker globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT fabienquetier globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT oliviarakotondrasoa globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT kouagouraoulsambieni globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT bensparrow globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT yegortarelkin globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT yannickusenisikuzani globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT arthurvanderlinden globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover AT philippelejeune globalalternativesofnaturalvegetationcover |